Dow/S&P500: Designated Market Maker Question

The following question was presented to GROK on X. Note that Designated Market Makers (DMMs) see your order flow and can trade for their own accounts. It is still a merchandising operation. They buy low and sell high.

Do designated market makers buy and sell for their own accounts?

Yes, Designated Market Makers (DMMs), formerly known as specialists, do indeed buy and sell securities for their own accounts, but within certain regulatory constraints:

  1. Market Making Role: Their primary role is to maintain fair and orderly markets for their assigned securities. This involves buying when there’s excess sell pressure and selling when there’s excess buy pressure, thereby ensuring liquidity.
  2. Proprietary Trading: DMMs are allowed to trade for their own accounts, which can include:
    • Hedging: They might hedge positions they hold in the market to manage risk.
    • Speculation: They might also engage in speculative trading based on their market insights or strategies, though this is more regulated than standard proprietary trading firms.
  3. Regulatory Framework:
    • DMMs operate under strict rules from the SEC and the exchanges. For instance, they must adhere to:
      • Priority Rules: They often have to give priority to public customer orders over their own when executing trades.
      • Price Improvement: They are sometimes required to improve the price when trading with themselves (buying at a higher price than the best bid or selling at a lower price than the best offer).
    • Regulations aim to prevent conflicts of interest and ensure that the market-making function is not compromised by proprietary trading activities.
  4. Information Advantage: Due to their central role in the market, DMMs have access to significant information about order flows which could theoretically give them an advantage in proprietary trading. However, this is heavily monitored to prevent unfair practices.
  5. Transparency and Fairness: Exchanges require transparency in how DMMs manage these dual roles to ensure market fairness. They must report their proprietary trades separately from their market-making activities.

So, while DMMs do engage in trading for their own accounts, this activity is closely intertwined with their obligation to facilitate trading for the public, under stringent regulatory oversight to maintain market integrity.

Examples of Approved NYSE DMM’s
Citadel LLC
GTS Securities LLC
Virtu Americas LLC

 

 

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple big blocks

On November 11, 2024 it was noted that “behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns.” Two extremely large Apple block trades crossed the tape recently on October 30, 2024 and November 15, 2024. This occurred near the end of an ascending triangle. It is also similar to what occurred on April 11, 2024 and April 19, 2024 within a falling wedge.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

S&P500: Point of Reference

The Fear & Greed Index value of 49 on September 5, 2024 is a point of reference using a 21.42 degree angle to November 15, 2024. On November 15, 2024, prior to the close, the index hit a value of 49.

As the S&P500 moves lower, it is expected to fill the gap created on November 6, 2024. Note that this gap does not appear in the S&P500 cash futures market.

A closer look at 15-minute charts shows the S&P500 declined with an angle of 63.07 degrees during the week of November 11, 2024. This same angle appeared between September 3, 2024 and September 6, 2024. A move down to the 21.42 degree support line would be expected before moving higher. This is consistent with the posts on November 13, 2024 and November 14, 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Economy: Jim Rickards 2025 Recession

Jim Rickards: Weakness, Recession in 6-9 Months, But a Very Strong Economy in 2-4 Years

00:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Rickards
01:18 2024 election review
05:07 Economic implications of election results
07:24 Trade policies and auto industry tariffs
09:29 The “American System” explanation
16:32 Analysis of Trump victory/Harris loss
21:45 Inflation discussion and public impact
24:24 Economic outlook: recession in the near-term vs. long-term growth
29:00 Jerome Powell and Fed leadership discussion
31:32 Labor market analysis and job revisions
36:45 “MoneyGPT” book and AI in daily life
41:56 AI’s impact on market crashes
45:23 AI, nuclear warfare, and empathy limitations
47:36 Historical nuclear war prevention examples
49:32 AI limitations in crisis management
51:01 MoneyGPT book release details and closing

Disclaimer

 

Dow: December 2024

On November 9, 2024 it was noted that the Dow revealed a pattern similar to September 2018. The following charts indicate the 4th Quarter Peak discussion on October 20, 2024 appears to be on track for completion by December 2024. A recession is still expected by 2025.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Apple Block Trades

Behind the scenes Market Makers have been trading very large blocks within key points of typical chart patterns. One series of large Apple block trades appeared between March and May of 2024 at the bottom of a falling wedge. Another series of trades appeared recently in an ascending triangle between late September and November 2024. Based on their trading patterns in large cap stocks, such as Apple, markets are on track for a move upward going into the end of 2024.
Note that scanning for block trades should be available on most trading platforms.

“Big blocks at the tops and bottoms of all moves become larger and more frequent depending on the duration and precipitousness of the move.”
Richard Ney, Making it in the Market, 1975, page 89

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow/Interest Rates: September 2018

On October 13, 2024 it appeared Market Makers were using algorithms to reproduce mathematical relationships used in the 2018 Dow chart structure. The market rally this week revealed a pattern that is similar to September 2018.  Based on this, the remainder of 2024 is expected to be similar to September and October 2018. Key points are identified in the following charts.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Dow charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Interest Rates: Recession in 2025

On May 16, 2024 it was noted that there were two key indications for a repeat of the year 2000. The 10Yr-2Yr charts shown below provide structural similarities as of November 7, 2024. The latest 10Yr-2Yr yield curve inversion started on July 6, 2022. Since September 6, 2024, it has remained above zero resulting in an inversion that lasted 26 months. On September 18, 2024 the Federal Reserve started their process of cutting the Fed Funds Rate by 1/2 percent. In comparison to 2000, the Fed started cutting rates after major Dow tech stocks collapsed. This time the Fed appears to be repeating their rate cutting process from 2007, as stocks are moving higher. A market decline and a recession in 2025 is expected.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Disclaimer

 

Crude Oil: Market Collapse

Crude Oil is clearly in the process of developing a descending triangle similar to what occurred between 2017 and 2019. That led to a market collapse in 2020 when the pandemic hit. The current formation is not a coincidence.
A meeting was held on October 10, 2024 to discuss the development of bird flu pandemic vaccines. Participants included members from the World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, National Institutes of Health, etc. They also discussed mandatory vaccinations. One presentation explained how grocery stores can report customers who purchase food contaminated with a bacteria or virus on their rewards program card. If you did, the CDC can then tell you to quarantine for three weeks.

If this plan is not stopped, 2025 is expected to be a repeat of 2020.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA

On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak was expected before stock markets moved lower. To support this, Exchange Insiders setup Intel’s replacement with NVIDIA in the Dow.

History shows Intel’s inclusion in the Dow on November 1, 1999 provided Market Makers with an ability to move other stocks lower in 2000, while Intel moved higher. Declining stocks included Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Nike, and Proctor & Gamble. Market Makers were able to convince investors to stay in the market during 2000 as the Dow moved sideways. Overall, this process is a merchandising operation. Market Makers will need to move other stock prices lower in 2025 in order to buy additional inventory for the future.

The 40.9 degree angle shown below on NVIDIA’s chart is the same as Intel’s angle during 1999 – 2000. Do not conclude that NVIDIA will move significantly higher. Market Makers will only move NVIDIA as needed in order to lower other stock prices.

“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

S&P500/NASDAQ: NVIDIA Ascending Triangle

On October 20, 2024 it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. Development of the NVIDIA ascending triangle shown below indicated a planned effort was underway based on placement of Market Maker’s large block trades. Their trading patterns supported an effective method of accumulation and distribution of inventory. At this point history shows a 70% chance of movement to the upside. This pattern is similar to Apple’s chart between July – October 2024.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and illustrates observations of trade patterns. It is not a recommendation.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow: 1929 Model

On October 20, 2024, it was noted that a 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets move lower. The Engrbytrade™ Dow 1929 Model also indicates a quick move to the upside should occur in November and December 2024. The following monthly charts show the Dow to be in a position that is similar to where it was in mid-May 1929, but that can change quickly.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Euro: Move to the 120 Range

On August 24, 2024 it was noted that the Euro was expected to move to the 120 range as the US Dollar declined. Additional research revealed Euro vs. U.S. Dollar derivatives indicate this is expected to be the case. Based on the October 25, 2024 post, silver along with the Euro, should move higher over the coming months. This also implies the U.S. Dollar would be expected to move lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Euro chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Silver: Relative Value

On October 14, 2024 it was noted that “Engrbytrade™ daily and weekly silver calculations are currently not indicating consistent readings where a significant decline would be expected”. These calculations were based silver bullion and U.S. Dollar values. Additional research indicates the relative value of silver to the U.S. Dollar is provided through their derivatives, SLV and UUP. Calculations for the relative value chart below indicates silver is undervalued and in a position similar to where it was on July 2, 2010.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Silver charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow/S&P500: Open Futures Gaps are Rarely Abandoned

On September 9, 2024  a Dow chart identified three gaps that needed to be filled. The S&P500 had two gaps. As of today, the large Dow and S&P500 gaps created on August 8, 2024 have not been filled. This is extremely unusual, particularly in the futures market where open futures gaps are rarely abandoned. This would indicate plans are being made to return to these levels in order to fill the gaps.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

The following table provides a list of Dow Futures gaps since August 8, 2024.

 

Dow: Market Makers are Positioning for a Decline

Using the Buffett Indicator 4th Quarter peak discussion on October 20, 2024 as a guide, underlying data shows Market Makers are positioning for a decline. Trading data has shown large blocks of stock crossing the tape over the last several months, while the Dow moves higher. This distribution of stock is similar to what occurred in late 2021. Before Market Makers initiate a major decline, they will drive prices lower in a select group of stocks in unrelated industries, such as Boeing, Intel, Nike and Disney shown below. The list of declining stocks will grow as financial news outlets provide an excuse for their declining prices. This is part of the merchandising operation where Market Makers sell stock at peak retail prices and eventually repurchase stocks in a lower wholesale price range.

“By scrapping traditional theory it becomes possible to discover the true order of things, to show how the aspiration of investors can be linked to the aspirations of the specialist [Market Maker] as he proceeds to merchandise his stock.”
Richard Ney, Wall Street Gang, 1974, page 88

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

 

Dow/S&P500/NASDAQ: 4th Quarter Peak

The Buffett Indicator is a ratio of the total United States Stock market to GDP. As of August 31, 2024 the Market Valuation to GDP was 209%, and is in the +2.2 standard deviation range. Similar events have occurred in the past where this indicator was near or above the +2 standard deviation level. This includes 1961, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2021. Each peak occurred during the 4th quarter. Once again, the Buffett Indicator is above the +2 standard deviation level. A 4th quarter peak is expected before stock markets start moving lower.

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Dow/S&P500: Hindenburg Omen September 2024

The weekly Hindenburg Omen September 2024 index shows a reading of 3.0 on September 3, 2024 and September 10, 2024.  A review of previous double peaks shows the following declines. Be prepared.

  1. January 16, 2018, January 22, 2018 – February 2018 decline
  2. September 4, 2018, September 17, 2018 – October – December 2018 decline
  3. January 27, 2020, February 18, 2020 – February – March 2020 decline
  4. September 3, 2024, September 10, 2024 – October – December decline?

Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer