Engrbytrade Posts

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VIX: Final Gap Up

The VIX has been following a pattern similar to what occurred between 2007 and 2008 as shown in the VIX 2023 Outlook. On November 23, 2022 the VIX filled its August 22, 2022 gap. This is similar to what occurred between January 27, 2022 and February 12, 2020 as shown in the 2020 chart below. The VIX is currently in the process of repeating the final gap up that is similar to what occurred on February 18, 2020. This would mean that the Dow / SP500 would be expected to start a significant decline this week.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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August – November 2022

January – February 2020

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Crude Oil: 12 Point Structure

Since April 2020 Crude Oil has developed a 12 point structure (shown below) that is similar to what was developed between January 2007 and February 2008 due to the $2 Trillion Cares Act that was signed on March 27, 2020. Two years and 3 months after the Cares Act was signed inflation pushed the Consumer Price Index 12-month percentage change up to 9.1% in June 2022. Crude Oil is expected to continue moving higher as it did in 2008 due the next wave of inflation in 2023 caused by the $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan that was signed on March 11, 2021.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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$WTIC 2020 – 2022

WTIC 2007 – 2008

 

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Dow: Copper Leading Indicator

Weekly intermarket futures trading data calculations provided a signal on November 15, 2022 indicating a sharp decline is expected for Copper, just as it did on December 17, 2019 prior to the January – March 2020 decline. This signal is also a leading indicator for a sharp decline in the Dow and aligns with Daily engrbytrade™ calculations noted on November 15, 2022.

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow /VIX: Filling VIX Gap

Over the last three trading days daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate Market Makers have been distributing (selling) very large blocks of stock as the Dow moves higher. This distribution process is expected to continue until the VIX gap (created on August 22, 2022) has been filled. This means the VIX will need to drop below 21.27 before moving higher.  The Dow futures gap created on 8/21/22 was filled on November 10, 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Dow: 33,686

As noted on October 21, 2022 the Dow moved within a primary target range of 32,210 (+/- 1 %) on October 27, 2022. It also hit a secondary target range of 33,043 (+/-1%) with a high of 33,000 in the futures on October 28, 2022. A brief move up to 33,686 in the Dow futures 15-minute chart is expected to close the gap created on August 21, 2022. This move would be similar to the Dow 15-minute futures structure developed between December 30, 2021 and January 5, 2022 before a meaningful decline starts.

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Dow: Six Day Rally

Over the last six trading days Dow futures have finished with a positive close. Similar six day positive close rallies occurred between December 21, 2021 to December 29, 2021, and May 23, 2022 to May 30, 2022. During all three rallies, it was observed that a significant number of very large blocks were traded. Preliminary estimates indicate that over the next 16 to 17 trading days the Dow will drop back down to 26,400 following the lower trend line shown above.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

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Dow: September – October 2021

Structural calculations indicate algorithms are in the process of repeating the late September to early October 2021 chart structure as shown in the charts below. Daily engrbytrade™ calculations confirm this development with updates that include a primary target of 32,210 (+/- 1%) and secondary target of 33,043 (+/- 1%). This rally will provide Market Makers with an opportunity to distribute very large blocks of stock as markets move higher.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer