Additional data with revised calculations related to the 1974 Dow structure noted on June 17, 2022 indicate that June 17, 2022 equals July 11, 1974. A move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) is still expected prior to moving lower. This would place a significant decline going into October 2022.
Dow: February 13, 1974
In order to complete a significant coordinated decline during the last half of this year, Market Makers are switching to the 1974 Dow structure today where June 17, 2022 equals February 13, 1974. Updated structural calculations show the Dow is expected to move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) prior to moving lower.
Dow: Market Rally
Current engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are in line with Peter Eliades’ latest projections.
Dow: Technical Indicators
For technical indicator traders, be aware that several indicators such as the CCI, RSI, Stochastic %K, William’s % R, TRIX, and Chaikin are in a very similar position to where they were on February 26, 2020.
Bitcoin: Euro 1981
Since the beginning of 2017, bitcoin has developed a chart structure similar to that of the Euro between April 1971 and July 1981. Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate bitcoin will continue to fall as the Euro did between 1981 and 1985. Bitcoin will ultimately fall below 6,000 before starting the next move towards 100,000.
Dow: Options Expiration
Preliminary engrbytrade™ timeline calculations indicate the Dow is expected to start moving higher by June 16, 2022, just prior to options expiration. This move up will also be dependent on very large block trade activity prior to June 17, 2022.
Dow: Significant collapse
The Dow’s move down to a low of 31,387.84 on June 10, 2022 places it in a position for an immediate drop below 31,250 to fill a gap that was created in overnight futures trading on May 22, 2022. Based on updated structural calculations and a lack of very large block trading, the Dow is expected to quickly move back up to 32,584 (+/-1%) in the futures market. An absence of big block trades and volatility will continue as the Dow initiates a setup for a significant collapse. This move has the potential of reaching a low of 23,262 (+/- 2%).
Dow: Pullback to 32,000
The Dow is on track with the June 3, 2022 post noting that a pullback to 32,000 is in order before moving higher. A move to 36,262 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Economy: Dotcom Bust 2
From those of us who experienced the Dotcom bust, Wolf Richter provides his perspective.
Wolf Street
June 5, 2022
Crude Oil: Price Increase
Crude oil is still on track to reach 222.95, as noted on May 1, 2022. Calculations indicate the rate of ascent has slowed over the last month, but a Saudi price increase and limited OPEC+ spare capacity will result in an upcoming parabolic move that is expected to peak by October 2022.
Silver: June 2012
Weekly futures trading data, daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations and structural data indicate silver will move up to 25.17 before moving lower. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between June 28, 2012 and October 1, 2012.
Dow: 36,262 (+/- 1%)
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations, very large block trade trends, and structural calculation updates indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 36,262 (+/- 1%) in the futures market before moving lower. A brief pullback to 32,000 is still in order prior to moving higher. Dire warnings from companies such JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have led investors to quickly sell and provide Market Makers/Exchange Insiders with the inventory (stock) needed to move markets higher over the very short term. Look for this narrative to move from dire warnings to a positive outlook as the Dow moves closer to 36,262. Market Makers/Exchange Insiders will then start selling to investors in preparation for another decline.
Dow: October 29, 2021
The Dow has moved quickly to the point where it currently aligns with October 29, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show a peak of 34, 580 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Dow: Brief Decline
Note that a brief declined is expected. This will be similar to the October 8, 2021 through October 13, 2021 decline. Upon completing this move the Dow will continue to move higher as noted May 24, 2022.
Dow: October 1, 2021
Over the last two weeks, very large block trades have been crossing the tape. This is very similar to large block trading between March 7, 2022 and March 10, 2022 prior to the Dow moving higher. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and structural data confirms the Dow 15 minute chart has started to repeat a structure similar to that of October 1, 2021 to November 8, 2021 with an expected peak of 34,580 (+/- 1%).
Economy: Converging Forces
Ed Dowd Interview:
The Four Converging Forces That Will Destroy the Economy
Dow: January 22, 2008
The March 29, 2022 to May 20, 2022 daily Dow futures chart structure is very similar to the December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008 structure. In the Dow 2 hour futures chart between April 21, 2022 and May 20, 2022 a decline developed that was similar to the engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model(TM) shown below. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show a move upward is expected with a retracement from 31,261 to 33,010 (+/-2%). To put 2022 into perspective, the decline from April 21, 2022 to May 20, 2022 is 2.22 times larger than the decline from December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Silver: Decline Is Expected
Daily engrbytrade™ calculation results indicate a decline is expected in the coming weeks. This data is similar to results appearing on March 17, 2022 and March 24, 2022 and it aligns with silver moving below its lower trend line, as noted on May 12, 2022.
Dow: Market Makers Repositioning
Daily calculations indicate Market Makers are in the process of repositioning and reallocating their inventory (stock) in preparation for a move higher, just as they did between September 30, 2021 and October 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to move up prior to the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14-15, 2022.
Silver: Two Year Timeline
Regardless of political affiliation, each response to an economic slowdown results in the development and passage of a bill that will provide funds needed to assist the economy. As the size and scope of each bill continues to grow over time one side effect after two years from the passage of this type of bill is a price increase in silver. The following list is an example of what happens approximately two years after a major economic stimulus, recovery, growth, or rescue plan is passed and signed into law.
- On December 10, 1971 Richard Nixon signed the $15 billion Revenue Act of 1971. Two years later silver started a move upward from $3.05 on December 13, 1973 to $6.49 on February 27, 1974.
- On May 13, 1977 Jimmy Carter signed the $20.1 billion Economic Stimulus Appropriations Act of 1977. Two years later, silver started a move on May 11, 1979 from $8.35 to a high of $42.29 on January 24, 1980.
- On June 7, 2001 George W. Bush signed the $1.3 trillion Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001. Two years later, silver started a move on June 11, 2003 from $4.48 to a high of $8.45 on April 2, 2004.
- On February 13, 2008 George W. Bush signed the $152 billion Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Two years later, silver started a move on February 8, 2010 from $15 to $30.68 on January 3, 2011.
- On February 17, 2009 Barack Obama signed the $831 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Two years later silver started a move on January 25, 2011 from $26.86 to a high of $49.80 on April 25, 2011.
- On March 11, 2021 Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. It is expected that starting two years later (March 2023) silver will initiate another significant move to higher levels.
Dow: Retracement to 33,675
On May 12, 2022 the Dow hit a low of 31,228.22, within the 31,000 +/-2% range of 30,380 to 31620 as noted on May 4, 2022. A retracement move back up to 33,675 (+/-2%) is expected before moving lower.
Dow: Move to 31,000
It appears Market Makers have decided to complete the move to 31,000 (+/- 2%) as noted on May 4, 2022.
Silver: Lower Trendline
Silver has broken its lower trend line as shown in the chart below. This is similar to what occurred in August 2008. The current decline is expected to continue until November 2022.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Institutional Selling
After four trading days of serious big block selling by large institutions, a move up to 34,731 (+/-1%) is expected before the next decline starts. This is similar to what occurred between March 8, 2022 and March 29, 2022.
Dow: Similar Results
Today, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations provided similar results to that of September 21, 2021, October 11, 2021, January 20, 2022 and March 8, 2022. A move higher levels is expected.