Futures trading data calculations indicate very significant and strategic long-term positions were constructed by institutions between June 22, 2022 and June 28, 2022. These positions are scaled relative to what was developed on March 24, 2009, September 1, 2015, February 23, 2016, March 24, 2020, May 19, 2020, June 23, 2020, and March 2, 2021. At a minimum the Dow is expected to move up to 35, 373 (+/-1%).
Dow: Repeating Structures
The following appears to repeat a smaller structure created between October 11, 2007 and November 27, 2007. This indicates a move back up to 35,000 is expected followed by a sharp decline later this year.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: 2008 Decline
The upcoming July 2022 to October 2022 silver futures chart structure is expected to be similar to the July 2008 to October 2008 structure with a move below $13 as stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022. Upon completing this decline, a long term move upward should occur based on $3.9 trillion of combined stimulus from the 2020 CARES Act and 2021 American Rescue Plan that will eventually make its way through the financial system and move into gold and silver as a hedge against a declining Dollar. The upcoming move after 2022 should be similar to what occurred after $999 billion from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2008 made its way through the financial system during 2009 and 2010.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: 2008 Strategy
Today, futures trader actions revealed their intent to repeat a 2008 strategy with a chart structure that will ultimately lead to $300 Brent Crude Oil. Based on several weekly engrbytrade intermarket calculations, crude oil moving up to $300 will drive the next stock market collapse.
Dow: Falling Wedge (Reversal)
In addition to the Engulfing Bullish Candle noted on July 2, 2022, a Falling Wedge (Reversal) has formed indicating a move back up to 35,000 is expected.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Engulfing Bullish Candle
The Dow is still in the process of completing an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model, as noted on June 27, 2022. On Friday, July 1, 2022 the Dow and S&P 500 closed with an engulfing bullish candle pattern. Based on this pattern, daily calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 33,268 (+/- 1%). Weekly calculations indicate a potential exists to move above 35,000, but additional data will be needed to confirm this.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Decline below 30,000
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow will briefly decline below 30,000 before moving higher. This drop will be similar to the structures that were developed between September 20, 2021 to October 1, 2021, and February 24, 2022 to March 8, 2022. One purpose of this decline will be to fill various gaps in the futures market that were created since June 20, 2022. Upon completion of this decline, the move upward is expected to continue.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow is currently in the process of completing an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure as shown in the chart above. In the past this structure has typically been seen as a recurring event within futures market intraday structures. One example would be the S&P500 one hour chart between March 29, 2022 and April 25, 2022. Based on the structure shown below, a sharp decline in the Dow to 25,377 is expected upon completing the move between point 7 and point 8.
Economy: Asset Deflation
Tim Wood interviews former BlackRock & hedge fund manager Edward Dowd. Beginning of the end for rate hikes.
Silver: 2022 Market Collapse
A change in daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate silver will start moving lower and drop below $13.00 by October as the economy and stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022.
Economy: BlackRock’s Robot
This supports the engrbytrade™ hypothesis that market movements are based on structures created prior to, and implemented during, the course of predetermined time frames.
Crude Oil: July 2022
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate Crude Oil (WTI) is in a similar position to where it was on November 29, 2021 and is expected to continue moving higher going into July 2022.
Disclaimer
Dow: 1974 Model
Based on the Dow update on June 18, 2022, a 1974 model has been added to the engrbytrade™ Dow Model series.
Dow: Update July 11, 1974
Additional data with revised calculations related to the 1974 Dow structure noted on June 17, 2022 indicate that June 17, 2022 equals July 11, 1974. A move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) is still expected prior to moving lower. This would place a significant decline going into October 2022.
Dow: February 13, 1974
In order to complete a significant coordinated decline during the last half of this year, Market Makers are switching to the 1974 Dow structure today where June 17, 2022 equals February 13, 1974. Updated structural calculations show the Dow is expected to move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) prior to moving lower.
Dow: Market Rally
Current engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are in line with Peter Eliades’ latest projections.
Dow: Technical Indicators
For technical indicator traders, be aware that several indicators such as the CCI, RSI, Stochastic %K, William’s % R, TRIX, and Chaikin are in a very similar position to where they were on February 26, 2020.
Bitcoin: Euro 1981
Since the beginning of 2017, bitcoin has developed a chart structure similar to that of the Euro between April 1971 and July 1981. Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate bitcoin will continue to fall as the Euro did between 1981 and 1985. Bitcoin will ultimately fall below 6,000 before starting the next move towards 100,000.
Dow: Options Expiration
Preliminary engrbytrade™ timeline calculations indicate the Dow is expected to start moving higher by June 16, 2022, just prior to options expiration. This move up will also be dependent on very large block trade activity prior to June 17, 2022.
Dow: Significant collapse
The Dow’s move down to a low of 31,387.84 on June 10, 2022 places it in a position for an immediate drop below 31,250 to fill a gap that was created in overnight futures trading on May 22, 2022. Based on updated structural calculations and a lack of very large block trading, the Dow is expected to quickly move back up to 32,584 (+/-1%) in the futures market. An absence of big block trades and volatility will continue as the Dow initiates a setup for a significant collapse. This move has the potential of reaching a low of 23,262 (+/- 2%).
Dow: Pullback to 32,000
The Dow is on track with the June 3, 2022 post noting that a pullback to 32,000 is in order before moving higher. A move to 36,262 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Economy: Dotcom Bust 2
From those of us who experienced the Dotcom bust, Wolf Richter provides his perspective.
Wolf Street
June 5, 2022
Crude Oil: Price Increase
Crude oil is still on track to reach 222.95, as noted on May 1, 2022. Calculations indicate the rate of ascent has slowed over the last month, but a Saudi price increase and limited OPEC+ spare capacity will result in an upcoming parabolic move that is expected to peak by October 2022.
Silver: June 2012
Weekly futures trading data, daily engrbytrade™ silver calculations and structural data indicate silver will move up to 25.17 before moving lower. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between June 28, 2012 and October 1, 2012.
Dow: 36,262 (+/- 1%)
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations, very large block trade trends, and structural calculation updates indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 36,262 (+/- 1%) in the futures market before moving lower. A brief pullback to 32,000 is still in order prior to moving higher. Dire warnings from companies such JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have led investors to quickly sell and provide Market Makers/Exchange Insiders with the inventory (stock) needed to move markets higher over the very short term. Look for this narrative to move from dire warnings to a positive outlook as the Dow moves closer to 36,262. Market Makers/Exchange Insiders will then start selling to investors in preparation for another decline.