As noted on August 2, 2022, futures trading calculations indicated a decline is expected. The rising wedge shown below aligns with current calculations for a move down to 31,000.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 31,000
With volatility increasing, Dow daily futures trading calculations indicate a quick decline below 31,000 is expected. This would be similar to what occurred between December 14, 2021 and December 20, 2021. Additional data will be needed this week to see if the move up to 33,913 continues.
Dow/SP500: 2022 Decline
In the following June 16, 2022 interview Peter Eliades notes that markets will move significantly lower this fall.
Silver: Decline Continues
Futures trading data and engrbytrade structural calculations indicate silver will continue to move lower based on the original thesis noted on July 6, 2022. At this point silver is expected to ultimately reach 10.65 (+/- 1.5%) between November 1, 2022 and December 19, 2022. This is the same range that silver moved into during mid-September 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Preliminary update 33,913
Based on futures trading data, rate of acceleration, and preliminary risk adjusted structural calculations the Dow is expected to reach point eight of the Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model (discussed previously) between August 4, 2022 and August 16, 2022 within a trading range of 33,913 (+/- 1.5%) before moving lower. This point in the model is a key area where the Dow is expected to start a significant decline during the last half of 2022. Updates will be provided as needed.
Dow: 2008 vs 2022 Reference Point
As noted on June 27, 2022, the Dow is in the process of completing an Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure. The 2022 Dow structure has similar design attributes as the smaller version from 2007-2008 and, based on its current position, a move above the June 1, 2022 high of 33,272 is expected to occur. Additional futures market data will be needed to identify reference point 8 where the Dow is expected to start moving lower.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver/Gold: Hedge Funds and Billionaires
Hedge funds and billionaires are buying precious metals as prices decline during the last half of 2022.
Go to the 4:00 minute mark
Banks Go Long Precious Metals in Preview of Price Booms | Round Table
Dow: Repeat of April 2022
Algorithms are in charge and repeating the basic double peak sequence that occurred between March 29, 2022 and April 21, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations still indicate a decline is expected below the lower (red) trendline shown above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: January 2008
Structural calculations and daily engrbytrade™ crude oil calculations indicate a move to higher levels is still expected to be similar to what is shown in the following chart. It has been observed that significant investments by corporations are occurring during the same time period that engrbytrade™ calculations indicate a move upward. At this point it is unknown if large corporations are trying to capitalize on an expected rise in crude oil prices due to limited production rates, Government funded carbon capture programs, or other factors.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: Repeating 2001
Gold futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022 as currencies such as the Euro, and British Pound move lower. The result will be a move by the U.S. Dollar toward its upper trendline shown in the chart below. This is a repeat performance of what occurred going into 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold:1436 (+/- 2%)
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022. A decline below its support line shown in the chart above is expected with a move down to 1436 (+/- 2%) as the U.S. Dollar moves higher.
Dow: Decline Below The Trendline
Before moving higher, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline should occur with a move below the lower trendline of the current falling wedge formation. This chart structure continues to develop into an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model TM formation, which is typically found within intraday futures charts. A structure similar to this can be found in the 1-hour Dow futures chart between February 10, 2022 and February 24, 2022. A sharp decline below 28,405 is expected before moving higher as it did between February 24, 2022 and March 30, 2022.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Strategic Long-Term Positions
Futures trading data calculations indicate very significant and strategic long-term positions were constructed by institutions between June 22, 2022 and June 28, 2022. These positions are scaled relative to what was developed on March 24, 2009, September 1, 2015, February 23, 2016, March 24, 2020, May 19, 2020, June 23, 2020, and March 2, 2021. At a minimum the Dow is expected to move up to 35, 373 (+/-1%).
Dow: Repeating Structures
The following appears to repeat a smaller structure created between October 11, 2007 and November 27, 2007. This indicates a move back up to 35,000 is expected followed by a sharp decline later this year.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver: 2008 Decline
The upcoming July 2022 to October 2022 silver futures chart structure is expected to be similar to the July 2008 to October 2008 structure with a move below $13 as stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022. Upon completing this decline, a long term move upward should occur based on $3.9 trillion of combined stimulus from the 2020 CARES Act and 2021 American Rescue Plan that will eventually make its way through the financial system and move into gold and silver as a hedge against a declining Dollar. The upcoming move after 2022 should be similar to what occurred after $999 billion from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2008 made its way through the financial system during 2009 and 2010.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: 2008 Strategy
Today, futures trader actions revealed their intent to repeat a 2008 strategy with a chart structure that will ultimately lead to $300 Brent Crude Oil. Based on several weekly engrbytrade intermarket calculations, crude oil moving up to $300 will drive the next stock market collapse.
Dow: Falling Wedge (Reversal)
In addition to the Engulfing Bullish Candle noted on July 2, 2022, a Falling Wedge (Reversal) has formed indicating a move back up to 35,000 is expected.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Engulfing Bullish Candle
The Dow is still in the process of completing an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model, as noted on June 27, 2022. On Friday, July 1, 2022 the Dow and S&P 500 closed with an engulfing bullish candle pattern. Based on this pattern, daily calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 33,268 (+/- 1%). Weekly calculations indicate a potential exists to move above 35,000, but additional data will be needed to confirm this.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Decline below 30,000
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow will briefly decline below 30,000 before moving higher. This drop will be similar to the structures that were developed between September 20, 2021 to October 1, 2021, and February 24, 2022 to March 8, 2022. One purpose of this decline will be to fill various gaps in the futures market that were created since June 20, 2022. Upon completion of this decline, the move upward is expected to continue.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow is currently in the process of completing an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure as shown in the chart above. In the past this structure has typically been seen as a recurring event within futures market intraday structures. One example would be the S&P500 one hour chart between March 29, 2022 and April 25, 2022. Based on the structure shown below, a sharp decline in the Dow to 25,377 is expected upon completing the move between point 7 and point 8.
Economy: Asset Deflation
Tim Wood interviews former BlackRock & hedge fund manager Edward Dowd. Beginning of the end for rate hikes.
Silver: 2022 Market Collapse
A change in daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate silver will start moving lower and drop below $13.00 by October as the economy and stock markets collapse during the last half of 2022.
Economy: BlackRock’s Robot
This supports the engrbytrade™ hypothesis that market movements are based on structures created prior to, and implemented during, the course of predetermined time frames.
Crude Oil: July 2022
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate Crude Oil (WTI) is in a similar position to where it was on November 29, 2021 and is expected to continue moving higher going into July 2022.
Disclaimer
Dow: 1974 Model
Based on the Dow update on June 18, 2022, a 1974 model has been added to the engrbytrade™ Dow Model series.