September 2022 will be an interesting month.
Economy: Powell Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole — 8/26/2022
Powell: “A sustained period of below trend growth is coming.”
Translation: Expect stock markets to move significantly lower over the next four months.
Economy: Real Estate Bubble
- THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop – The Big Boys Leave, Waiting for Reset
August 7, 2022
Dow: Filling August Gaps
The Dow is moving lower in an attempt to close a gap in the 5-minute futures chart that was created on August 10, 2022 between 32,840 and 32,955. The next move would be upward in order to fill various gaps created in the 5-minute futures chart between August 16, 2022 and August 19, 2022. In order to fill the gaps at higher levels, a move up to 34,187 will be needed. This means a quick move up with significant distributions by Market Makers would form a double top in the Dow prior to making a significant decline.
Crude Oil: Heating Oil 2014
In addition to what was noted on August 7, 2022, Heating Oil related futures trading data calculations support a decline in crude oil with structural attributes similar to what occurred between August 21, 2014 to December 31, 2014,
Silver: Tracking 2008
Engrbytrade daily and weekly calculations show the August 2022 decline in silver is still tracking with August 2008. As noted on July 20, 2022, a decline to 10.65 (+/- 1.5%) between November 1, 2022 and December 19, 2022, is still planned. Futures trading data shows that when this decline is complete, a long term move upward will start.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow/SP500: Distribution of Stock
Since July 19, 2022 daily engrbytrade™ Dow and S&P500 calculations have revealed an underlying trend of significant selling that is similar to what occurred between October 21, 2021 and November 11, 2021. The rate and scale of Market Makers distributing stock indicates a move to significantly lower levels is expected during the last half of 2022.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
S&P500: Huge Decline
HUGE DECLINE!! BUT NOT QUITE YET!! FIND OUT WHEN??
Dow: September 2023
Engrbytrade structural calculations from 1966 to 1974, 1998 to 2009 and 2015 to 2022 have provided sufficient data for a preliminary estimate indicating the Dow is expected to fall to 16,500 (+/- 4%) by September 29, 2023.
Dow: Inverse Index Groups
Market Makers are currently moving the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ indices higher in order to fill gaps in their related inverse index groups. It was observed that gaps occurred in various daily inverse index groups on April 6, 2022 (PSQ, QID, REW, SQQQ) and April 22, 2022 (DOG, DXD, RXD, SDOW, SKF). The Dow 30 inverse index shown above illustrates a process Market Makers are using with a rising wedge show below in order to fill gaps created on April 22, 2022. This process also aligns with the July 28, 2022 post and an expectation of reaching point eight of the Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model (discussed previously) between August 4, 2022 and August 16, 2022 within a trading range of 33,913 (+/- 1.5%) before moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Futures Bearish Candle
On August 9, 2022 the Dow daily futures index closed with an engulfing bearish candle. This indicates the Dow has hit its final peak in the Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model, as shown in the above chart. Based on this structure the Dow is expected to move down to 23,032 by October 28, 2022.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: Descending Triangle
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate oil will change direction with a move down that is expected to be similar to what occurred between August and December of 2014. The chart shown above illustrates a descending triangle that has formed this year with oil starting to move below its support line. As the US Dollar continues to rise, it is having an impact on commodities and currencies such as silver, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc shown below.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: August – October 2022
The Dow is within the August 4, 2022 to August 16, 2022 date range as noted on July 28, 2022. August 5, 2022 daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed August 4, 2022 is a turning point that will start a decline. The upcoming decline is expected to be similar to what occurred between August 8, 2008 and October 10, 2008.
Dow: Rising Wedge 31,000
As noted on August 2, 2022, futures trading calculations indicated a decline is expected. The rising wedge shown below aligns with current calculations for a move down to 31,000.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 31,000
With volatility increasing, Dow daily futures trading calculations indicate a quick decline below 31,000 is expected. This would be similar to what occurred between December 14, 2021 and December 20, 2021. Additional data will be needed this week to see if the move up to 33,913 continues.
Dow/SP500: 2022 Decline
In the following June 16, 2022 interview Peter Eliades notes that markets will move significantly lower this fall.
Silver: Decline Continues
Futures trading data and engrbytrade structural calculations indicate silver will continue to move lower based on the original thesis noted on July 6, 2022. At this point silver is expected to ultimately reach 10.65 (+/- 1.5%) between November 1, 2022 and December 19, 2022. This is the same range that silver moved into during mid-September 2008.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Preliminary update 33,913
Based on futures trading data, rate of acceleration, and preliminary risk adjusted structural calculations the Dow is expected to reach point eight of the Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model (discussed previously) between August 4, 2022 and August 16, 2022 within a trading range of 33,913 (+/- 1.5%) before moving lower. This point in the model is a key area where the Dow is expected to start a significant decline during the last half of 2022. Updates will be provided as needed.
Dow: 2008 vs 2022 Reference Point
As noted on June 27, 2022, the Dow is in the process of completing an Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure. The 2022 Dow structure has similar design attributes as the smaller version from 2007-2008 and, based on its current position, a move above the June 1, 2022 high of 33,272 is expected to occur. Additional futures market data will be needed to identify reference point 8 where the Dow is expected to start moving lower.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Silver/Gold: Hedge Funds and Billionaires
Hedge funds and billionaires are buying precious metals as prices decline during the last half of 2022.
Go to the 4:00 minute mark
Banks Go Long Precious Metals in Preview of Price Booms | Round Table
Dow: Repeat of April 2022
Algorithms are in charge and repeating the basic double peak sequence that occurred between March 29, 2022 and April 21, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations still indicate a decline is expected below the lower (red) trendline shown above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Crude Oil: January 2008
Structural calculations and daily engrbytrade™ crude oil calculations indicate a move to higher levels is still expected to be similar to what is shown in the following chart. It has been observed that significant investments by corporations are occurring during the same time period that engrbytrade™ calculations indicate a move upward. At this point it is unknown if large corporations are trying to capitalize on an expected rise in crude oil prices due to limited production rates, Government funded carbon capture programs, or other factors.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
US Dollar: Repeating 2001
Gold futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022 as currencies such as the Euro, and British Pound move lower. The result will be a move by the U.S. Dollar toward its upper trendline shown in the chart below. This is a repeat performance of what occurred going into 2001.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Gold:1436 (+/- 2%)
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Futures trading data and daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate gold will continue to trend lower during the last half of 2022. A decline below its support line shown in the chart above is expected with a move down to 1436 (+/- 2%) as the U.S. Dollar moves higher.
Dow: Decline Below The Trendline
Before moving higher, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline should occur with a move below the lower trendline of the current falling wedge formation. This chart structure continues to develop into an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model TM formation, which is typically found within intraday futures charts. A structure similar to this can be found in the 1-hour Dow futures chart between February 10, 2022 and February 24, 2022. A sharp decline below 28,405 is expected before moving higher as it did between February 24, 2022 and March 30, 2022.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.