Gold: Brief Decline

As expected, Commercial Futures Traders have adjusted their positions in preparation for a brief decline going into July 6, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) where gold is expected to reach a price target of 1639 (+/- 1%) prior to moving above 1765.  After reaching 1639, a long term move will start and ultimately reach a peak of 4000 (+/- 2.5%) during the first quarter of 2021.

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Dow: Volatility Continues

As volatility continues to drive the Dow through extreme cycles each day it is still on track to move up to a peak of 27147 (+/- 0.5%) on Friday, June 19, 2020 before stopping and turning lower in July and August 2020.  This peak is expected to have a retracement level of 78.6% based on a high of 29568.57 on February 12, 2020 and a low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020.

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Gold: Next Turning Point

At this point gold should fluctuate within a range of 1727 to 1639 until the first week of July.  The current structure and acceleration rate indicates a turning point should occur on July 6, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) where gold is expected to reach a price target of 1639 (+/- 1%) prior to moving above 1765.  Preliminary calculations also indicate the gold timeline has been compressed significantly with a parabolic move starting slowly after July 2020 and reaching a peak of 4000 (+/- 2.5%) during the first quarter of 2021.

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Dow: Filling the Gaps

Based on high volatility in the futures market related to filling an unusually high number of price gaps in the Dow over the last two months, Futures Traders have aligned their positions in an attempt to fill the gap created on the NYSE at the opening of February 24, 2020.  Once this is complete a decline is expected to commence going into late 2020.

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Dow: Unfinished Business

A detailed review of Dow futures trading data revealed a gap down of 282 points occurred between 5:00 pm (EST) on February 21, 2020 and 6:00 pm(EST) on February 23, 2020.  This gap was not filled and subsequently led NYSE Market Makers to open the Dow with a reading of 28,402.93 during the morning of February 24, 2020.  To resolve this gap a move up to 28,892.70 will be needed in 2020 before conducting the next major decline.  In the interim, the Dow is expected to hit a low of 18,213 (+/- 1%) by June 9, 2020 before moving higher to resolve any unfinished business from February 23, 2020.  After moving up to 28,892.70, another decline is expected to occur that will be larger than the February to March 2020 decline.

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Gold: Precious Metal Shortage

Based on Commercial Trader actions, gold is expected to have a brief pullback in May.  This will be followed by a steady climb to $2450 (+/- 3%) by mid-summer where it will pause before moving higher into 2021. Initial estimates show gold reaching $4000 by the first quarter of 2021.  Watch for shortages of gold and silver.
See: COVID-19 mining shutdowns

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Dow: 2020-2021

A detailed review of Dow structural data covering February, March and April 2020 indicates a decline is still expected to start this week.  In addition to reaching 20,800 in May 2020, calculations revealed the current Dow structure is unstable and is expected to have a significant impact on markets in 2020 and 2021. The current rate of change in this structure indicates a potential decline to a level below 16,000 before the end of 2020.

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Dow: 18,213 Support Level

Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a  33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.

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