After an early morning drop on Tuesday, April 21, 2020, a move back up to 23,400 is expected. Structural calculations show the Dow moving down to 22,300 (+/-1%) by Friday, April 24, 2020.
Dow: Price Action Update
The result of today’s price action indicates Market Makers are planning a decline that will take the Dow down to 20,800 (+/-2%) by April 27, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). The 18,213 support level is still in place.
Dow: Options Expiration Update
The sharp decline noted on 4/9/20 is in progress. Current structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 20,800 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 at 4:00 p.m. If needed, calculations will be updated for the Dow hitting 18,435.
Dow: 18,213 Support Level
Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a 33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.
Dow and Silver: Rising Wedge
Observing one hour charts for the Dow and Silver, it appears they are near the end of a rising wedge formation before starting their decline.
Gold and Silver: 2020
The latest engrbytrade gold and silver model pricing timelines are decreasing at a rapid rate as the Federal Reserve continues to inject trillions of dollars into the financial system. The Federal Reserve has chosen a path that will force hard asset prices to move significantly higher by mid-2020. The first level expected for gold is in the $2450 range and silver in the $100 range. Volatility will increase as demand for gold and silver accelerates.
Dow: Options Expiration
Since March 23, 2020 Market Makers have managed to construct a Dow structure, along with inverse derivative structures, that indicate a sharp decline in the Dow is expected to start during options expiration week. At this point calculations show the Dow reaching a low of 18,435 (+/- 2%) by April 20, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Short Sale Structures
Current structures in the Futures Market indicate Market Makers are in the process of accumulating short sales to maximize profits by adjusting the next low in the Dow to reach 20,819 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). The potential still exists for the Dow to reach 19,136 at a later date.
Silver: 2020 Low
As the stock market declines, structural calculations indicate silver is expected to decline to 10.75 (+/- 5%) by April 23, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) for a final 2020 low prior to moving back up to 18.00 in May 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate silver prices in the $50 range during 2021.
Dow: Turning Down
Based on the rate of speed in which the Dow turning point arrived, structural calculations and volatility noted on March 29, 2020, a rapid decline is in order to a level of 19,136.17 (+/-2%) by Wednesday, April 8, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) prior to moving higher.
Dow: Extreme Volatility
A spread of 4,382 Dow points from the low on March 23, 2020 to a high on March 26, 2020 resulted in the development of a Dow turning point that arrived sooner than expected. The Dow is now expected to move quickly to a lower level of 20,123 (+/- 2%) before moving higher.
Gold: Under Accumulation
Commercial Traders have been accumulating gold through a series of declines since 2015. Another decline is expected during April – May 2020 and will provide Commercial Traders with the opportunity to continue their long-term gold accumulation process. Current calculations indicate this decline is expected to take gold down to the 1287 level before moving beyond 1700.
Gold: Constructing a Foundation
On March 15, 2020, it was noted below that Commercial Traders pushed gold quickly to the downside on March 12-13, 2020 to reach a closing price of $1529.75. Gold stayed within in a nominal range of 1460 to 1560 for six trading days before moving up quickly in the futures market to a level of 1699.15 at 7:53 p.m. on March 24, 2020. This move is in alignment with a review of price structures covering the last twelve months that indicate a very large foundation is being constructed for gold. This structural work is required to take the price of gold to a level five times higher than what is currently listed on the exchanges. A preliminary timeline estimate for this project is three to four years. In the interim, you will see unusually high volatility with events such as the latest rush to buy when prices are decoupling between paper and physical markets.
Federal Reserve Intervention
Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions. The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions. Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%). Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.
Dow: Double Bottom Reversal
In the futures market, as of 04:30 a.m. EST on March 19, 2020, a Double Bottom Reversal has formed in the Dow. This indicates a move upward to 24,490.39 is expected to start soon.
Dow: 52.5% Retracement
Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.
Dow: Turning Point
Ongoing research and calculation adjustments based on Market Maker actions indicate the Dow is expected to reach 19,294.34 (+/-1%) by Wednesday, March 18, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Preliminary estimates indicate this low will provide a turning point for a move up to 24,442.83 (+/-2%) by August 21, 2020.
Gold: Early Decline
Commercial Traders pushed gold to the downside on March 12-13, 2020 to reach a closing price of $1529.75. This move was previously expected to be complete by the first week of April, as noted on February 29, 2020. Gold is now expected to return to $1690 (+/-2%) by April 17, 2020 in preparation for a move to the $2,100 range by November, 2020. Long term preliminary calculations show gold should reach $4000 by January 2022. Volatility will increase as the price moves higher.
Dow: Option Expiration
Based on the current Dow algorithm and Market Maker actions, calculations now show the Dow is expected to reach a low (during options expiration) of 19,313 (+/- 2%) by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Dow: Decline Continues
On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST. This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today. A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.
Dow: Double Top Pattern
As of March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST Futures Traders bypassed their move to the upside in preparation for a significant move lower. Starting March 9, 2020, Futures Traders setup a Double Top pattern that will result in a move to the downside between March 12 and March 13, 2020 to a level of 22, 615 (+/-1%).
Dow: Margin Call
Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020. Margin calls are in progress…..
Dow: Friday 13th Low
After nine trading days of extreme volatility, Market Makers have modified their timeline to set up a structure that is expected see the Dow close on a low of 24,191 (+/-1%) by Friday, March 13, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Gold: 2/29/20 Update
Commercial Traders came within 3% of the projected $1720 with a daily high of $1659 on February 24, 2020. Based on gold sales used to cover stock market margin calls and Commercial Traders gold short positions, a decline in gold is expected to align with the Dow’s decline going into the first week of April. After this decline, gold is expected to continue its move to higher levels.
Silver: 2020+ Perspective
Viewing silver over the long term on a logarithmic chart provides the perspective of an ascending triangle structure, as shown in the chart above. With this perspective, the expectation would be for silver to move back up to its horizontal trend line near the $50 mark. This would be followed by a pullback to the upper 20’s and then move on to a theoretical level of $80.