Dow: Unfinished Business

A detailed review of Dow futures trading data revealed a gap down of 282 points occurred between 5:00 pm (EST) on February 21, 2020 and 6:00 pm(EST) on February 23, 2020.  This gap was not filled and subsequently led NYSE Market Makers to open the Dow with a reading of 28,402.93 during the morning of February 24, 2020.  To resolve this gap a move up to 28,892.70 will be needed in 2020 before conducting the next major decline.  In the interim, the Dow is expected to hit a low of 18,213 (+/- 1%) by June 9, 2020 before moving higher to resolve any unfinished business from February 23, 2020.  After moving up to 28,892.70, another decline is expected to occur that will be larger than the February to March 2020 decline.

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Gold: Precious Metal Shortage

Based on Commercial Trader actions, gold is expected to have a brief pullback in May.  This will be followed by a steady climb to $2450 (+/- 3%) by mid-summer where it will pause before moving higher into 2021. Initial estimates show gold reaching $4000 by the first quarter of 2021.  Watch for shortages of gold and silver.
See: COVID-19 mining shutdowns

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Dow: 2020-2021

A detailed review of Dow structural data covering February, March and April 2020 indicates a decline is still expected to start this week.  In addition to reaching 20,800 in May 2020, calculations revealed the current Dow structure is unstable and is expected to have a significant impact on markets in 2020 and 2021. The current rate of change in this structure indicates a potential decline to a level below 16,000 before the end of 2020.

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Dow: 18,213 Support Level

Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a  33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.

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Gold and Silver: 2020

The latest engrbytrade gold and silver model pricing timelines are decreasing at a rapid rate as the Federal Reserve continues to inject trillions of dollars into the financial system.  The Federal Reserve has chosen a path that will force hard asset prices to move significantly higher by mid-2020. The first level expected for gold is in the $2450 range and silver in the $100 range. Volatility will increase as demand for gold and silver accelerates.

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Gold: Under Accumulation

Commercial Traders have been accumulating gold through a series of declines since 2015. Another decline is expected during April – May 2020 and will provide Commercial Traders with the opportunity to continue their long-term gold accumulation process.  Current calculations indicate this decline is expected to take gold down to the 1287 level before moving beyond 1700.

 

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Gold: Constructing a Foundation

On March 15, 2020, it was noted below that Commercial Traders pushed gold quickly to the downside on March 12-13, 2020 to reach a closing price of $1529.75. Gold stayed within in a nominal range of 1460 to 1560 for six trading days before moving up quickly in the futures market to a level of 1699.15 at 7:53 p.m. on March 24, 2020. This move is in alignment with a review of price structures covering the last twelve months that indicate a very large foundation is being constructed for gold.  This structural work is required to take the price of gold to a level five times higher than what is currently listed on the exchanges.  A preliminary timeline estimate for this project is three to four years.  In the interim, you will see unusually high volatility with events such as the latest rush to buy when prices are decoupling between paper and physical markets.

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Federal Reserve Intervention

Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions.  The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions.  Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%).  Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.

Dow: 52.5% Retracement

Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline.  Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.

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