As the stock market declines, structural calculations indicate silver is expected to decline to 10.75 (+/- 5%) by April 23, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) for a final 2020 low prior to moving back up to 18.00 in May 2020. Preliminary calculations indicate silver prices in the $50 range during 2021.
Dow: Turning Down
Based on the rate of speed in which the Dow turning point arrived, structural calculations and volatility noted on March 29, 2020, a rapid decline is in order to a level of 19,136.17 (+/-2%) by Wednesday, April 8, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) prior to moving higher.
Dow: Extreme Volatility
A spread of 4,382 Dow points from the low on March 23, 2020 to a high on March 26, 2020 resulted in the development of a Dow turning point that arrived sooner than expected. The Dow is now expected to move quickly to a lower level of 20,123 (+/- 2%) before moving higher.
Gold: Under Accumulation
Commercial Traders have been accumulating gold through a series of declines since 2015. Another decline is expected during April – May 2020 and will provide Commercial Traders with the opportunity to continue their long-term gold accumulation process. Current calculations indicate this decline is expected to take gold down to the 1287 level before moving beyond 1700.
Gold: Constructing a Foundation
On March 15, 2020, it was noted below that Commercial Traders pushed gold quickly to the downside on March 12-13, 2020 to reach a closing price of $1529.75. Gold stayed within in a nominal range of 1460 to 1560 for six trading days before moving up quickly in the futures market to a level of 1699.15 at 7:53 p.m. on March 24, 2020. This move is in alignment with a review of price structures covering the last twelve months that indicate a very large foundation is being constructed for gold. This structural work is required to take the price of gold to a level five times higher than what is currently listed on the exchanges. A preliminary timeline estimate for this project is three to four years. In the interim, you will see unusually high volatility with events such as the latest rush to buy when prices are decoupling between paper and physical markets.
Federal Reserve Intervention
Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions. The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions. Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%). Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.
Dow: Double Bottom Reversal
In the futures market, as of 04:30 a.m. EST on March 19, 2020, a Double Bottom Reversal has formed in the Dow. This indicates a move upward to 24,490.39 is expected to start soon.
Dow: 52.5% Retracement
Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.
Dow: Turning Point
Ongoing research and calculation adjustments based on Market Maker actions indicate the Dow is expected to reach 19,294.34 (+/-1%) by Wednesday, March 18, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Preliminary estimates indicate this low will provide a turning point for a move up to 24,442.83 (+/-2%) by August 21, 2020.
Gold: Early Decline
Commercial Traders pushed gold to the downside on March 12-13, 2020 to reach a closing price of $1529.75. This move was previously expected to be complete by the first week of April, as noted on February 29, 2020. Gold is now expected to return to $1690 (+/-2%) by April 17, 2020 in preparation for a move to the $2,100 range by November, 2020. Long term preliminary calculations show gold should reach $4000 by January 2022. Volatility will increase as the price moves higher.
Dow: Option Expiration
Based on the current Dow algorithm and Market Maker actions, calculations now show the Dow is expected to reach a low (during options expiration) of 19,313 (+/- 2%) by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Dow: Decline Continues
On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST. This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today. A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.
Dow: Double Top Pattern
As of March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST Futures Traders bypassed their move to the upside in preparation for a significant move lower. Starting March 9, 2020, Futures Traders setup a Double Top pattern that will result in a move to the downside between March 12 and March 13, 2020 to a level of 22, 615 (+/-1%).
Dow: Margin Call
Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020. Margin calls are in progress…..
Dow: Friday 13th Low
After nine trading days of extreme volatility, Market Makers have modified their timeline to set up a structure that is expected see the Dow close on a low of 24,191 (+/-1%) by Friday, March 13, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Gold: 2/29/20 Update
Commercial Traders came within 3% of the projected $1720 with a daily high of $1659 on February 24, 2020. Based on gold sales used to cover stock market margin calls and Commercial Traders gold short positions, a decline in gold is expected to align with the Dow’s decline going into the first week of April. After this decline, gold is expected to continue its move to higher levels.
Silver: 2020+ Perspective
Viewing silver over the long term on a logarithmic chart provides the perspective of an ascending triangle structure, as shown in the chart above. With this perspective, the expectation would be for silver to move back up to its horizontal trend line near the $50 mark. This would be followed by a pullback to the upper 20’s and then move on to a theoretical level of $80.
Gold: 2/22/20 Update
Commercial traders accelerated their schedule with a closing gold price of 1619.63 on February 21, 2020. Based on the current engrbytrade gold model structure estimate, gold is on a trajectory to rise rapidly in 2021 resulting in a peak that is projected to reach $4,600 by the first quarter of 2022. This accelerated pace indicates Commercial Traders will drive prices exponentially higher as time progresses and the peak projected in 2022 will need to move higher. As of February 22, 2020, the gold price points shown below are expected in 2020. Adjustments will be made as needed to align with Commercial Trader activity and increasing volatility.
$1720 : April 23, 2020
$1630 : May 11, 2020
$1830 : August, 12, 2020
$1600 : September 21, 2020
$1890 : December 31, 2020
Decline Into April
On January 3, 2020 it was noted that a decline is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. After reviewing data up to this point calculations indicate this decline is still expected with minor adjustments. The Dow is now expected to drop between February 10, 2020 and April 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) to a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%). Volatility will be extreme during this decline as a significant number of investors try to sell at the same time. If Exchange Insiders delay this decline, it will set the stage for a decline at a later date that will shake the foundation of the financial industry.
Long Term Perspective
Investors continue to buy shares with borrowed funds as they did 300 years ago with the South Sea Company. When prices started to fall in the last half of 1720 speculators went bankrupt and fortunes were lost. The structure shown above represents the Dow from 1973, after the U.S. went off of the gold standard, until February 2020. Timelines for developing the 1720 and 2020 price structures are vastly different, but the chart structures are similar and the underlying element of excessive debt that drives this market is identical.
Gold: Trading Range Low
As noted on 1/6/20, gold hit the $1570 mark on January 5, 2020 at 6.01 p.m. (EST) and was on a path to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid-February before moving higher into mid-August. On February 4, 2020 Commercial Traders accelerated their schedule by dropping gold $23.83 to 1552.91, near the low end of its short term trading range. Today (February 5, 2020), the engrbytrade gold trading model indicates gold is expected to stay within 1% of the February 4, 2020 closing price before moving up to $1750 by March 19, 2020 (+/- 1 day).
Dow – 3rd Try
Today’s upward move in the Dow will be the third try for Futures Traders to fill the gap between 28890.5 and 28908 that was left behind on January 26, 2020 at 17:00 (5:00 p.m. EST). Once this is complete, the Dow should continue to move lower.
Review the 15 minute chart.
Gold & Silver Trend
Palladium is providing a preview of what will occur with Gold and Silver. On August 16, 2018 palladium hit a low of 815.20 and is currently above 2300. Recent structures in palladium, gold and silver indicate the acceleration rates for gold and silver will continue to increase. By April 2021, this will place gold near the $4600 mark while silver peaks near $89. Gold is still expected to move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range until mid to late February before moving higher.
Exceeding Structural Limits
If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.
Dow Upper Trend Line
On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com