On July 20, 2024 an exponential shift occurred when Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net short positions. This short position move was much larger than what occurred in 2007. After the July 2007 record of net short positions, stock markets started moving lower in October 2007.
On July 30, 2024 Non-Commercial Futures Traders reported a record level of British Pound net long positions on July 23, 2024. This was well above the July 2007 record that occurred prior to the Dow and S&P500 peak in October2007.
In the chart below Swiss Franc Non-Commercial Traders repeated a 105 day performance of what occurred between May 29, 2018 and September 11, 2018. After Swiss Franc traders changed direction in September 2018, stock markets started a decline in October 2018. This lasted until late December 2018.
It appears various currency futures traders are positioning for a stock market peak in late September or early October 2024. This would be followed by a substantial decline going into 2025.
