Intermarket structural analysis research
On March 18, 2024 a flash crash occurred in the offshore BitMEX (Seychelles) exchange driving the price of Bitcoin as low as $8900.
This significant decline was initially expected to occur in 2022 based on the Engrbytrade™ Bitcoin Model. It appears someone, or an organization, expected a decline similar to the 1982 – 1985 Euro decline and needed to fill, or cover a trade. Volatility in Bitcoin is expected to pick up, just as the Euro did between 1988 and 1992.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On February 28, 2024 it was noted that a descending triangle was forming in the Euro and it is similar to what occurred in 2020 – 2021. Based on current futures trader position calculations the Euro, at this point, is a Bitcoin leading indicator. The Euro is in a position similar to where it was on August 5, 2021. Bitcoin did not start to move lower in 2021 until the Euro dropped out of the descending triangle in mid-November 2021. Bitcoin and the Euro appear to be repeating the same process developed in late 2021.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on bitcoin: My personal advice is don’t get involved
In this Davos discussion Jamie Dimon stated his position on Bitcoin by noting that it is a “Pet Rock” used in nefarious transactions and speculative trading. What is not discussed is how the U.S. Dollar and Euro can affect the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently in a structural position similar to where the Euro was in late 1981, right before it fell 33%. After the Euro’s decline it started a sharp move to the upside going into December 31, 1987. If Bitcoin moves lower as expected it would be the result of the Dollar moving higher.
“Spot Bitcoin” approval – final steps
The financial media is leading a major push with crypto optimism saying, “Crypto enthusiasts believe the SEC may finally be on the verge of approving a Spot Bitcoin ETF…”, as shown in the following interview. This crypto optimism is happening at the same time as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index runs into its Extreme Greed range with a reading of 76/100, as of January 9, 2024 at 09:00 a.m. ET.
Engrbytrade™ data still indicates bitcoin will conduct a repeat performance of what occurred with the Euro between 1972 and 1985. It appears the big banks and hedge funds are negotiating with the SEC to write their trading rules so Wall Street can do whatever they want with bitcoin. The bottom line is that big banks want a majority stake in bitcoin and will collapse the price to get as many people as possible to sell. This is what big banks and Market Makers do.
As noted on September 3, 2023, futures trading data indicates the British Pound is currently in a similar position to where it was in July 2014. A decline in the British Pound would be expected to coincide with a rise in the U.S. Dollar and a decline in Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s move to lower levels would align with the Bitcoin / Euro Model.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily Engrbytrade™ short term calculations continue to indicate the U.S. Dollar is under accumulation and is expected to move higher, just as it did in 2022. This will drive the value of various products lower, including Bitcoin. On July 6, 2023, it was noted that international bankers, BlackRock, et al., want to drive asset prices lower in order to buy them for pennies on the Dollar. Bitcoin is currently in the final phase of a long term decline that is expected to be a repeat of the Euro’s decline between 1983 and 1985, before moving significantly higher, as shown in the latest Bitcoin model update.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On July 5, 2023 Larry Fink called bitcoin an international asset. This is just the reverse of what he said on October 13, 2017 when he called bitcoin an ‘index of money laundering’. Based on recent actions of BlackRock and international bankers, it is clear they want to drive bitcoin down to its October 13, 2017 level of $5,509. International bankers initiated a similar plan with the Euro when they watched the U.S. Dollar move from 72.12 on January 4, 1982 to 115.7 on February 25, 1985 while the Euro collapsed. The U.S. Dollar is currently expected to move significantly higher during the upcoming months, resulting in bitcoin moving lower. International bankers and BlackRock will accumulate bitcoin during this decline as they build out their line of bitcoin financial products. Upon completion of this decline, the banks and BlackRock will initiate a long term move that ultimately runs bitcoin well above its highs of November 2021.
The Future of Money
Eswar Prasad, WEF Annual Meeting of the New Champions, June 2023
Go to the 32:30 mark:
“You can have programmability. Units of Central Bank Digital Currency with expiry dates. You could have, as I argue in my book a potentially better than some people might see, or a darker world where a Government decides that units of Central Bank money can be used to purchase some things, but not other things that are deemed less desirable….”
On June 28, 2023 daily calculations indicated the US Dollar is expected to turn and trend higher. When the Dollar moves higher bitcoin will move lower, as shown in the chart below. During this move the Engrbytrade™ bitcoin model indicates bitcoin will move below 10,000. This will allow major banks to accumulate bitcoin and use it as a bank reserve for future central bank requirements. Upon completion of the banks accumulation of bitcoin at lower levels, bitcoin is then expected to move well above its November 2021 high in the coming years, just as the Euro moved from 0.56 in February 1985 to 1.40 in September 1992.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
JP Morgan Activates Euro Payment Settlement With Its JPM Coin
JP Morgan Cryptocurrency
Programmable Payments: Automation Becomes Reality
“Following pre-programmed rules, payments are initiated any time conditions are met, removing the need for human intervention to discover, calculate and confirm the required conditions needed before a payment can be executed.”
Payment will not be made if you do not follow the pre-programmed rules.
Bitcoin is in the process of developing a chart structure that is similar to the 1972 – 1985 Euro structure. Key turning points have been identified on the charts. As of June 16, 2023 Bitcoin is in a position similar to where the Euro was in April 1983.
JP Morgan’s Secret About The Fed And CBDCs (EXPOSED!)
Intermarket futures trading data shows the Euro moving higher in 2023 while the U.S. Dollar declines. As the Dollar declines, Bitcoin is expected to move higher during the next 12 months. This move should be similar to what occurred during 2017 and April 2020 to April 2021.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A Bitcoin vs Euro model representation is available on the Bitcoin model page.
Charles Nenner on the S&P 500, Dow, Gold, and Bitcoin.
The Dow and S&P 500 decline in September/October 2022 with a tradable low in the first quarter of 2023. They will move up into March 2023 before making a serious move to the downside.
Gold moves lower in September.
Bitcoin moves up until the beginning of October 2022, then it will continue to move lower.
Since the beginning of 2017, bitcoin has developed a chart structure similar to that of the Euro between April 1971 and July 1981. Engrbytrade™ calculations indicate bitcoin will continue to fall as the Euro did between 1981 and 1985. Bitcoin will ultimately fall below 6,000 before starting the next move towards 100,000.
As noted in the April 6, 2022 entry, Bitcoin is following the same path as the Euro did between 1971 and November 1980 at an accelerated pace. Bitcoin will continue to decline as the Euro did between 1980 and 1985.
Based on 10Yr Note intermarket daily trading calculations and Bitcoin structural calculations a decline is expected where Bitcoin will reach 17,478. This decline will be similar to what occurred between April 1, 2021 to June 22, 2021 and November 11, 2021 to January 24, 2022. This move will also close the daily chart gap created between November 27, 2020 and November 30, 2020.
Engrbytrade™ bitcoin daily calculations indicate bitcoin is expected to continue moving up to a level of 53,763 (+/- 1%).
Engrbytrade™ bitcoin daily calculations and intermarket futures trading data indicate bitcoin is expected to move higher over the next two months. Preliminary data shows a 50% retracement to 50,850.
Not a surprise that Tom Lee agrees on a rally in February. Bitcoin is still expected to continue trending lower this year with a move similar to that of the Euro in 1980.
A violent rally in February? @fundstrat's Tom Lee joins 'Fast Money' to give his forecast for the market and bitcoin after the bumpy January. $BTC pic.twitter.com/L4XrJmpqT6
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) January 31, 2022
Additional research confirms that Bitcoin is not developing a head and shoulders pattern, but is in the process of completing a double top reversal that is similar to what occurred in 1980 when the Euro and gold peaked prior to a long term decline. Bitcoin is currently in a position that is similar to where gold closed on January 26, 1981. This decline is expected to continue for at least three years.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Structural calculations indicate Bitcoin is in the process of duplicating the 1973 to 1980 Euro chart structure using an abbreviated timeline that started in 2017. Bitcoin is expected to drop to 30,000 by February 2022. After moving to 30,000 it is expected to move above 55,000 before starting the next move down to complete a head and shoulders formation. This final move down will be the start of a long term decline.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to show Bitcoin is in a long term accumulation phase noted in the October 30, 2021 post. This is also expected to be a volatile accumulation period on a much larger scale than what occurred during November 2018, and March 2020.