Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000
See: Investing Legend Sees “Spectacular” Crash In “The Next Few Months”
Dow: 44 weeks
Stock chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
In addition to the 1929 timeline, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates made a point in 2017 that the U.S. economy looks like it did in 1937.
The week of May 4, 1936 to week ending March 6, 1937 covers 44 weeks with a similar structure shown in the chart above. As of the end of this week, the Dow will complete its 44th week starting from March 23, 2020.
Dow: 1929 vs 2021
On September 3, 1929 the Dow Jones index hit an all-time high of 386.10 prior to starting the market collapse. Today, Market Makers took advantage of the inauguration by pushing the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) upward to hit a high of 384.79. It is not a coincidence that the Dow’s 1929 high of 386.10 and today’s SPY high of 384.79 are less than 2 points apart.
Dow: Market Peak
Underlying futures trader positions and intermarket relationships between the Dow, 30Yr Bond, Copper and U.S. Dollar indicate a major decline is expected over the next two years. There is a high probability the Dow will repeat a structure similar to that of October 2007 through March 2009, ultimately dropping below 6,000. As of January 15, 2021, data indicates the Dow is in the same position as it was on October 11, 2007.
Dow: Hedged Position
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The chart above reflects the intent of Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders to provide a swift decline below 15,000. At this point Commercial Futures Traders are hedged to take advantage of this broadening formation.
Dow: Timeline Review
A review of the timeline indicates Market Makers are still planning a January – February decline. It is expected that they will split the decline with the first part in January by dropping the Dow to 26,256 (+/- 2%) by January 28, 2021. This will be followed by a relatively small retracement during the first week of February to 28,154 (+/- 2%). The second decline is expected to take the Dow down to 14,683.46 (+/- 2%) by March 2, 2021.
Dow: 3.618
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
On January 8, 2021 the Dow hit an Engrbytrade level of 3.618 in the chart structure shown above. From this level the Dow is expected to roll over and start moving lower. This structure has occurred numerous times in the past. One example occurred between May 20, 1987 and August 25, 1987 prior to the October 1987 crash.
Dow: Dow vs. SPY
Note: On August 29, 1929 the Dow hit a daily high of 378.80 prior to moving lower the following week. On December 21, 2020 the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit a daily high of 378.46.
Dow: Sept – Oct 1929
Trades related to the 1929 template currently being used by Exchange Insiders, as discussed on December 12, 2020, are on track to duplicate a September 3, 1929 to October 4, 1929 decline during January – February 2021. An intraday low of 12,904.27 (+/-2%) is expected by February 25, 2021. This aligns with a decline in gold and silver that is expected during the same time period.
Dow: Rising Wedge Complete
As of December 21, 2020 at 04:45 a.m. EST, the 9 Point Rising Wedge structure discussed on December 18, 2020 is complete. The Dow is moving within a well-defined channel shown above while various sources note that stock markets are overvalued. JP Morgan stated; “…equity markets have not been this expensive so early into an economic recovery phase in the last twenty years.” A move down to 19,595 (+/- 2%), as discussed on December 12, 2020, is still expected.
Dow: 9 Point Rising Wedge
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A 9 Point Rising Wedge structure in the Dow is nearing completion. This is very similar to what occurred in February 2020.
Dow: 1929 vs 2020
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
After a detailed review of weekly data for the Dow, it is apparent that Exchange Insiders are in the process of updating a template from 1929 for a stock market decline that is expected to be larger than what occurred between February 10, 2020 and March 23, 2020. The 38 week structure developed between March 23, 2020 and December 11, 2020 is strikingly similar to the 39 week structure developed between December 10, 1928 and September 7, 1929. A decline is expected to occur between December 14, 2020 and February 26, 2021 with a preliminary estimated close in the range of 19,595 (+/-2%).
Dow: 2007 vs 2020
Dow structural patterns discussed on December 5, 2020 are similar to structures developed during September – October 2007. Record highs are noted in the following articles. A different narrative is discussed during each timeline, but it appears current algorithms have been designed to provide a decline similar to 2007-2009 over the next two years for the Greatest Recession.
October 9, 2007:
S&P 500 Closes At All Time High
December 7, 2020:
Stocks rise to fresh record highs as Pfizer begins UK vaccine rollout
Dow: Closing High 30218.26
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
A rising wedge in the Dow, as shown above, with a closing price that equals the high for Friday, December 4, 2020 indicates a repeat performance of February 2018 with a sharp decline expected over the next week.
Dow: Sharp Decline
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
As algorithms continue to repeat, another gravestone candlestick appeared in the Dow daily chart on December 1, 2020. Expect a sharp decline over the next 9 trading days.
Dow: First Time Headline
A “first time” headline for the Dow moving above 30,000 arrived on November 24, 2020. This move resulted in an update to structural calculations indicating extreme price swings are expected during December with a revised intraday low target of 19,174 (+/-1%) by December 31, 2020.
Dow: Similar Structures
Note that the Dow 30 minute futures chart structure developed between 8:30 a.m. on November 9, 2020 and 11:30 a.m. on November 24, 2020 is similar to the 30 minute futures chart structure developed between 1:00 a.m. on February 6, 2020 and 7:00 p.m. on February 19, 2020. Similar structures created prior to, and implemented during the course of predetermined time frames supports the engrbytrade hypothesis that Exchange Insiders, and Commercial Futures Traders are in control and leave nothing to chance.
Dow: Structural Update
Calculations indicate price adjustments in the Dow have resulted in a structural update showing a low of 22,137 (+/-1%) by December 23, 2020.
Dow: The Great Short
The charts shown below compare notional values of the Dow between 1914 -1929 and 1995 -2020. Adding an additional 24+% to the SP500 (and Dow) within one year, as noted by JP Morgan on November 9, 2020, would drive the Dow up to an estimated value of 36,553 by the last quarter of 2021. By November 2021 the “Great Reset” is expected to turn into the Great Short of 2021-2023.
Dow: Repeat 2009 to 2015
During the process of building engrbytradeTM Project 2023, additional data identified Commercial Traders positioning for a repeat performance of March 2009 to May 2015. Upon completion of a decline, as noted on November 10, 2020, Commercial Futures Traders and Market Makers will move ahead with the “Great Reset” plan by developing an extension to their existing project timeline. This would explain optimistic forecasts, such as JP Morgan expecting 4500 on the SP500 by the end of 2021.
Dow: Revised Calculations
Based on yesterday’s high of 29,933.83, revised calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach a low of 18,213.70 (+/-1%) by December 29, 2020 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: 7 Point Formation
Futures traders were provided with the opportunity to finish a 7 point Broadening Formation structure and push the Dow towards 30,000. Market Makers will sell short as retail investor’s rush in to buy. Completion of this formation will setup the Dow for a long term decline.
Dow: November Low
Initial calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach a low of 20,539 (+/-1%) by November 30, 2020 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: Ahead of Schedule
Today, the Dow hit a high of 28,301.50 ahead of schedule and within the trading range of 28,360 (+/-1%) noted on October 31, 2020. Based on current Dow structure calculations and multiple engrbytrade embedded trade markersTM, a decline to a trading range of 20,539 (+/-1%) is expected. Additional calculations will be needed to focus on a final trading range and date.
Dow: Retracement Update
Based on efforts by Market Makers and Futures Traders to form a base for the next move up, a retracement up to 28,360 (+/- 1%) is expected by November 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) using a rising wedge formation in the futures market prior to starting a decline to 22,715 (+/- 1%).