The 90 year timeline for a major decline is still on track. Key events discussed on September 7, 2020 will drive a decline of 86% in the Dow over the next two years. Calculations show the Dow will hit a low of 4137.19 by October 2022. In the background COVID cases will start to increase in October 2020 and peak by January 2021. This is very similar to what happened with the Spanish Flu in 1919. The second wave of COVID will continue to unravel the economy and supply chains resulting in numerous bankruptcies.
Dow: Repeat Performance
It should be noted that Market Makers are apparently working to duplicate a basic Dow structure from August 2000 to September 2000. Underlying holdings of select positions in the futures market indicate a repeat performance is expected in September to October 2020.
Dow: Early Peak
Commercial Futures Traders are accelerating their schedule in order to develop a structure that will reach an early peak of 29,789 (+/- 1%) by September 9, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Their efforts are expected to place the Dow in a position that will support a decline to the 17,000 range by December 2020. Volatility will continue to increase.
Dow: Mid-September Peak
The engrbytrade Dow model indicates a peak of 30,409 (+/- 1%) is expected on September 16, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) prior to moving significantly lower. Following this peak, estimates currently indicate a move down below 17,000 by December 2020.
Dow: Distribution of Inventory
Replacing Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies with Salesforce, Amgen, and Honeywell International will allow Exchange Insiders to extend the current rally an additional 6% as they maximize short sales during their distribution of inventory (stock) to the public. The Dow is expected to reach 30,469 by September 28, 2020 and hit an upper trend line shown in the chart above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Structural Changes
In an attempt to mitigate a precipitous decline in the Dow, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced structural changes that will go into effect on August 31, 2020. This adjustment does not change expectations for a decline between August 2020 and October 2020, as noted on August 9, 2020.
Dow: 2018 Repeat Performance
Watch Market Makers conduct a repeat performance of 2018 by December 2020.
Posted by CNN on November 20, 2018.
Dow: Close the Gap
A detailed review of the current Dow structure indicates a peak is expected on August 12, 2020 (+/- 1.5 trading days). This move should allow sufficient time for Market Makers to close the gap created on February 24, 2020. Following this peak the Dow is expected fall below 17,000 by mid-October 2020.
Dow: August Decline
Structural calculations currently show a decline starting on July 29, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) and reaching 18481 (+/-1%) by August 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this decline, a short term move upward is expected prior to dropping into the last quarter of 2020.
Dow: Gap Filled
Between June 17, 2020 and June 26, 2020, the Dow moved from 26,119.61 to 25,015.55. Today, Market Makers filled the gap that occurred between June 10, 2020 and June 11, 2020. This move aligns with the development of a rising wedge starting from a low of 20,735.02 on April 2, 2020. It also confirms the intent of Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders to move the Dow down to 18481.
Dow: Structured Decline
On June 17, 2020 Futures Traders initiated the development of a basic Descending Triangle structure in preparation for a sharp decline in the Dow. Over the last five trading days calculations confirmed this structure has been designed to move the Dow down to 18481 by August 28, 2020. Volatility is expected to increase as the Dow moves lower over the next 45 trading days.
Dow: Volatile Decline
It should be noted that during the mid-June 2020 decline a select group of “short” exchange index products were under heavy accumulation during June 11 – 12, 2020. Historical data indicates that significant gaps, such as the one created on April 3 – 6, 2020 are expected to be filled. This would place the Dow in an extremely volatile range of 21447.81 (+/- 5%).
Dow: Early Decline
During the Federal Reserve Chairman’s testimony today, Futures Traders had a change of plans and developed a basic Descending Triangle structure as a prelude to a sharp decline in the Dow. This decline could be a minimum of 10% over the next 3 to 5 trading days.
Dow: Volatility Continues
As volatility continues to drive the Dow through extreme cycles each day it is still on track to move up to a peak of 27147 (+/- 0.5%) on Friday, June 19, 2020 before stopping and turning lower in July and August 2020. This peak is expected to have a retracement level of 78.6% based on a high of 29568.57 on February 12, 2020 and a low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020.
Dow: Asymmetric Decline
Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to conduct a short term move up to 27147 by June 19, 2020. The Dow is then expected to move down in an asymmetrical form, as compared to the March – June move upward, ultimately reaching 18481 by August 28, 2020. Closing the 2/24/20 gap would be deferred to a later date.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Over the last two days the Dow has been working through a typical engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model as shown below. This was a recurring event in the futures market during late April and early May. After completing this decline today a move back up to the 28750 crossing point is expected before starting a significant decline.
Dow: Crossing Points
The Dow is still expected to cross the following Futures Market targets prior to turning and moving down toward 18481.
Target, Original Date and Time Identified
28750 2/23/20 @ 18:00 (final crossing point)
28665.5 2/23/20 @ 19:39
28626 2/23/20 @ 21:22
28214.5 2/25/20 @ 02:16
Dow: Nikkei 225 Alignment
Current calculations indicate the Nikkei 225 is expected to continue its retracement into the February 21, 2020 to February 25, 2020 gap within 5 trading days. After entering this range the Nikkei 225 and Dow are expected to stall and start moving lower. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 18481.
Dow: 1937 Parallel
Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders continue to fill minor gaps in the Dow structure on their way to closing a final gap created on February 24, 2020, just as they did on August 12, 1937 before starting a sharp decline. Similarities between 1937 and today are noted in the following interview.
RAY DALIO September 23, 2017 Interview
Dow: Filling the Gaps
Based on high volatility in the futures market related to filling an unusually high number of price gaps in the Dow over the last two months, Futures Traders have aligned their positions in an attempt to fill the gap created on the NYSE at the opening of February 24, 2020. Once this is complete a decline is expected to commence going into late 2020.
Dow: Retracement Peak
Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to hit a peak closing price of 25054.98 (+/-1%) this week. This will mark the end of the retracement structure and a decline should start immediately thereafter.
Dow: Extended Decline
The decline to 18590 (+/-1%) is still expected to occur by July 1, 2020, as noted on May 16, 2020. In addition to this, calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving lower after July 1, 2020 to 15,178 (+/-1%) by July 15, 2020.
Dow: 24558 – 24559 Gap Filled
Due to a gap on the one minute futures chart that was left on April 30, 2020 at 06:52, Commercial Futures Traders pushed the Dow up to fill this gap before moving lower. Unfinished business still remains as noted on 5/8/20.
Dow: May to June Decline
Commercial Traders setup a series of positions last week in order to complete the second half of the March 23, 2020 to April 29, 2020 Dow retracement structure with a decline to 18,590 (+/-1%) by July 1, 2020. It is possible this decline could move below the 18,590 level. Additional notes will be added if this is expected.
Dow: Unfinished Business
A detailed review of Dow futures trading data revealed a gap down of 282 points occurred between 5:00 pm (EST) on February 21, 2020 and 6:00 pm(EST) on February 23, 2020. This gap was not filled and subsequently led NYSE Market Makers to open the Dow with a reading of 28,402.93 during the morning of February 24, 2020. To resolve this gap a move up to 28,892.70 will be needed in 2020 before conducting the next major decline. In the interim, the Dow is expected to hit a low of 18,213 (+/- 1%) by June 9, 2020 before moving higher to resolve any unfinished business from February 23, 2020. After moving up to 28,892.70, another decline is expected to occur that will be larger than the February to March 2020 decline.