Structural calculations indicate a decline is expected to continue and reach 31,493 (+/- 1%) in the futures market before making a brief move to the upside.
Dow: Big Block Trades
Market Makers continue to accelerate the timeline with big block trades (>1 million shares) continuously crossing the tape this week as the Dow moves higher. Based on Market Maker actions, structural model calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to peak and turn down as early as today (March 11, 2022). As noted previously, a significant decline is expected to start and last until the end of 2022.
Dow: Accelerated Schedule
It appears Market Makers are working to an accelerated schedule. Rather than completing the expected peak in April, preliminary calculations indicate the Dow could reach a peak of 34,400 before the end of this month. Following this peak, a significant decline is expected to start and last until the end of 2022.
Dow: 32,689
Today the Dow hit a low of 32,689 in the futures market. From this point the Dow is expected to start moving up to 34,600 between April 15, 2022 and April 25, 2022.
Dow: Volatile Time Frame
Commodity prices for products such as petroleum, grains, lumber, etc. are affecting stock markets just as they did during the first quarter of 2008. The Dow is moving into a volatile time frame that is similar to what occurred between February 1, 2008 and March 10, 2008. Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations now show a move up to 34,600 between April 15, 2022 and April 25, 2022. After moving through this time frame, a significant decline is expected for the remainder of the year.
Dow: 2007 Structure
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears that algorithms have been set to repeat a move similar to what occurred between August 17, 2007 and October 11, 2007. This is a perfect opportunity for Market Makers to accumulate inventory as fear on the street drives retail investors to sell to anyone who will buy.
Dow: Stock Buybacks
Goldman Sach’s buyback comment appears to contradict what traders would expected with the current situation in Europe. Apparently Goldman is aware that the proposed SWIFT suspension is meaningless. This means engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are correct to show a move up to 35,606 as corporations continue to buy back their stock.
Two examples of corporations announcing stock buybacks.
Twitter Board OK’s New $4 Billion Stock Buyback
Exxon Mobil’s Announced Stock Buyback
Dow: First Move Up
Preliminary structural calculations indicate the first move up will reach 35,606.
Dow: Overnight Low
The Dow hit a low of 32,168 in the overnight futures market. This low is within the 32,018 +/- 1% range noted on February 23, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and preliminary structural data indicate Market Makers will initiate a move towards 38,000.
Dow: Month End Liquidation
Structural calculations indicate a sharp decline (liquidation) is expected going into the end of this month. A decline to 32,018 (+/- 1%) is still expected before moving higher.
Dow: Structural Update
Based on engrbytrade™ Dow structural calculation updates, the decline is now expected to reach 32,018 (+/- 1%) before moving higher.
Dow: Decline Continues
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline will continue. Structural calculations show algorithms are in the process of repeating a one hour futures chart structure similar to what was developed between December 7, 2018 and December 24, 2018. Preliminary calculations indicate a decline to 28,225 (+/- 2%) is expected.
Dow: 2018 Decline Structure
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to indicate a decline is expected with a move down to 34,081 (+/- 0.5%) to fill a gap in the 5 minute futures chart created on January 28, 2022. Calculations also indicate there is a 60% chance of a decline starting this week that will be similar to what occurred in the one hour futures chart between December 7, 2018 and December 24, 2018.
Dow: Repeating 2018
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket Futures trading data and daily calculations indicate a decline is expected and there is a 30% chance that the January 4, 2022 to February 14, 2022 Dow structure is in the process of repeating the October 3, 2018 to December 4, 2018 structure, as shown above.
Dow: Limited Decline
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and Market Maker block trades indicate algorithms will initiate a limited decline similar to what occurred between December 16, 2021 and December 20, 2021. This decline is expected to move the Dow down to 34,081 (+/- 0.5%). It will also fill a gap in the 5 minute futures chart created on January 28, 2022.
Dow/S&P500: $3 Trillion Loss
On January 24, 2022, it was reported that global stock selloff losses were near $3 trillion. It should be noted that part of this stock (inventory) moved from institutional customers, such as pension funds and large trading firms, to the accounts of NYSE Designated Market Makers (DMM) and Supplemental Liquidity Providing Firms (SLP-Prop / SLMM). In the coming weeks part of the inventory accumulated by the DMM and SLP firms will be sold to corporations who are initiating corporate buyback programs. This buyback process will run until March 14, 2022. As corporate buyback programs progress, DMMs and SLP firms will raise prices of their inventory and institutions, large trading firms, retail investors, etc., will start buying. When DMMs and SLP inventories are depleted they have the option to sell short. During the next decline DMMs and SLP firms will cover their short positions while buying stock (inventory) from institutions and large trading firms at a lower price. This process of inventory control was explained in Richard Ney’s books published between 1970 and 1975. The following document provides some insight to the process as well. On page 10 it states that Market Makers must track their inventory to ensure they are not taking undue risk or encroaching on capital limits.
Dow: Broadening Formation
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Between July 19, 2021 and January 24, 2022 Market Makers created a small scale version of the broadening formation developed between April 2, 2018 and March 23, 2020. Based Market Maker’s accumulation of very large blocks between January 24, 2022 and January 28, 2022 the current 2021-2022 broadening formation structure indicates a move toward the 38,000 range is in progress.
Dow: 35,520 Gap
Today, the Dow opened at 35,520.08 creating a gap with the previous day’s close. This is similar to what occurred on Monday, January 18, 2022 when a gap in the Dow was created with an opening of 35,661.76. Prior to the markets opening on the morning of January 18th a gap in the overnight 5 minute futures chart was also created between 35,671.00 and 35,659.00 and has not been filled. It is expected that the Dow will fill the futures market gap created on January 18, 2022 and the gap created today prior to moving lower.
Dow: Retracement Limit
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the retracement from January 25, 2022 to February 2, 2022 has hit a limit similar to what occurred between December 2, 2021 and December 7, 2021. With Market Makers managing very large block trades after the close, a decline to 34,214 is expected by February 16, 2022. If there is a sharp decline in the 10-Yr Note rate as the Dow declines, this is an indication that Exchange Insiders are anticipating a significant decline in the Dow.
Dow: Tom Lee
Not a surprise that Tom Lee agrees on a rally in February. Bitcoin is still expected to continue trending lower this year with a move similar to that of the Euro in 1980.
A violent rally in February? @fundstrat's Tom Lee joins 'Fast Money' to give his forecast for the market and bitcoin after the bumpy January. $BTC pic.twitter.com/L4XrJmpqT6
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) January 31, 2022
Dow: Move to 38,000
Futures trading data for this week now shows futures traders are taking advantage of the Dow being undervalued relative to the U.S. Dollar and are making preparations for the Dow to move upward. Calculations indicate a structure will be completed in a very short period of time that is similar to what was developed between February 12, 2018 and October 3, 2018. With the participation of futures traders and Market Makers, a move to 38,000 is achievable. This will complete the 1929 model.
Dow: Volatility
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
In addition to generating structures similar to what was developed between December 1, 2021 and December 2, 2021 volatility has provided Market Makers with an opportunity. The daily Dow futures candlestick chart indicates a repeat performance of October 1, 2021 to October 6, 2021. On January 25, 2022 it was observed that a significant number of very large blocks crossed the tape indicating an accumulation process was underway. Based on accumulation, volatility and price movement calculations it appears Market Makers are in the process of developing a structure similar to that of October 6, 2021 to November 8, 2021. Preliminary structural calculations show the Dow moving to 37,977 (+/- 1%) by March of 2022.
Dow: Move to 35,883
Between 11:20 a.m. (EST) on January 21, 2022 and 4:00 p.m. (EST) on January 24, 2022 computer algorithms generated a 5 minute futures chart structure that is similar to, and 65.5% larger than, what was generated between 11:15 a.m. (EST) on December 1, 2021 and 4:00 p.m. (EST) on December 2, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations currently indicate the Dow is expected to move to 35,883 (+/- 1%) before February 9, 2022 with the continuation of computer generated algorithms that are similar in structure to what was generated between December 2, 2021 and December 16, 2021.
Dow: Potential Decline
Based on volume and volatility calculations over the last five months, a potential exists for the Dow to decline 1.5% on Monday, January 24, 2022, before moving higher.
Dow: Long Term Decline
Friday’s update to intermarket currency futures trading data indicates the Dow is recreating a move similar to what occurred between October 3, 2018 and October 11, 2018. A retracement is expected with a move up to 35,271 (+/-1%). It appears a long term decline has been initiated.