Euro: Repeat of 2008

The Euro chart structure developed between July 27, 2020 and July 12, 2021 is similar to the Euro structure developed between March 6, 2008 and August 5, 2008.  Intermarket Futures trading data calculations relative to the U.S. Dollar indicates a decline in the Euro is expected during the remainder of 2021 that would be similar to the decline conducted from August 5, 2008 and November 30, 2008.

Disclaimer

Dow: 1913 to 1929 Model

Structural research indicates the Federal Reserve started developing a stock market model in 1913 that ultimately drove prices higher going into September 1929 before collapsing the markets.  Comparing data structures covering the last 28 years this same model has taken shape on a scale that is 100 times larger than the 1913 to 1929 model.  As of July 2, 2021 a closing price of 34,786 in the current model would be within 1% of a relative position of 344.7 in the Dow structure on July 25, 1929.  Assuming the Federal Reserve continues to support this model, the Dow would be expected to reach 38,120 (+/- 1%) by September 2021 before collapsing.  Research also indicates key areas of Dow Futures Trading data show a trend shift that would support a scenario for a final move to higher levels between July and September 2021.

 

Disclaimer

Dow: Modified Structure

Today, shortly after 8:00 a.m. (EST) when an announcement of a deal with the Senate infrastructure group was made, Dow algorithms were modified from a structural decline similar to that of March 2020 to a retracement structure found between November 27, 2007 and December 10, 2007.  A decline is expected with a move down in the futures market to 31,712 (+/- 1%) by August 4, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).

Disclaimer

Dow: Retracement Upward

On June 19, 2021 it was noted that based on algorithm adjustments the Dow would move down to 32,756 (+/- 1%) by Monday, June 21, 2021.  On June 20 at 11:00 p.m. the Dow hit a low of 32,903 and was within the applicable 1% range.  A retracement upward to 33,818 (+/- 1%)  is expected by Thursday, June 24, 2021 before starting a move to significantly lower levels.

Disclaimer

Dow: Key Markers

As the Dow continued its decline on Friday, key markers were noted within its futures market structure that had similar attributes to the February 24, 2020 to February 27, 2020 decline.  At this point algorithm adjustments for this decline are expected to take the Dow down to 32,756 (+/- 1%) by Monday, June 21, 2021 before starting a retracement move upward.

Disclaimer

Silver: Deflationary Forces

Currency and silver calculations continue to indicate a decline in silver.  With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar.  It also aligns with a peak in the price of silver against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Silver post on May 16, 2021.  A repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 is expected where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of silver much lower over the next three years.

Disclaimer

Gold: Deflationary Forces

On June 8, 2021 it was noted that a move up in gold to 1942.50 was expected prior to turning lower.  With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar.  It also aligns with a peak in the price of gold against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Gold post on June 5, 2021.  At this point gold is expected to have a repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of gold much lower over the next three years.

Disclaimer

Crude Oil: May 2018

Preliminary futures trading data structural calculations indicate an algorithm is moving Crude Oil (WTI) within a structure that is similar to what was developed in 2018.  At this point current pricing is in the same relative position as it was in May 2018.  If this trend continues, crude will align with a sharp decline expected between October 2021 and December 2021.  Additional data will be needed over the coming weeks to confirm this.

Disclaimer

Dow: Exhibit 1

It has become increasing clear to some investment management firms, such as Morgan Stanley, that stock markets have hit their peak.  Exhibit 1 in the following Zerohedge article illustrates this.

“We Took Out The June 2007 Highs”: Morgan Stanley’s Sell Signal Just Hit An All Time High

This aligns with the engrbytrade SP500 entry on June 5, 2021 describing an expected decline.

Disclaimer

Gold: Position of Gold

On May 25, 2021 it was noted that the position of gold against its current relative value with the U.S. Dollar was part of a calculation indicating a decline in gold is expected. In addition to the U.S. Dollar calculation, the position of gold to the British Pound and Canadian Dollar are now showing a 90% chance that gold will decline.  The last time this occurred was in September 2012.

Disclaimer

Dow: Indication of a Top

Algorithms appear to have been initiated, modified, or deactivated over the past two trading days. This provided a futures market structure that is similar to what was developed between 3:00 p.m. on January 31, 2020 and 3:00 p.m. on February 12, 2020.  The current structure runs between 10:00 a.m. on May 19, 2021 to 8:00 a.m. on May 27, 2021. This indicates a top was hit today.  There is a 10% chance the Dow will move to 34, 986 (+/- 1%) as discussed on May 26, 2021.

Disclaimer

Gold: 2011-2021

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Additional data indicates a decline in gold is expected after reaching the 61.8% retracement level shown in the weekly chart above.  This is based on calculations showing: 1) Commercial Traders positioning for a decline, 2) Non-Commercial Traders accumulating significant long positions as well as their sentiment that gold prices will continue much higher, and 3) the position of gold against its current relative value with the U.S. Dollar.  This also aligns with the post on May 22, 2021 noting that the Dollar is being positioned for a move higher in 2021.

Disclaimer

Dow: Dow Rise vs Dollar

As noted in the SP500 post on May 20, 2021, the Dow is also developing a structure similar to the January 24, 2020 to February 4, 2020 structure.  As this continues into June 2021, it should be noted that the Dollar is being positioned for a move higher in 2021 as a stock market decline is initiated by international bankers to drive the dollar higher, just as they did between July 2008 and March 2009.

Disclaimer