In the March 1, 2021 post it was noted that calculations indicate global currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro are expected to retest their previous 2020 lows by early 2023 as the U.S. Dollar moves higher. On April 5, 2021 Goldman Sachs finally closed its recommendation for shorting the dollar.
Dow: April Rising Wedge
The change in algorithms noted on March 30, 2021 has developed into a rising wedge structure in the futures market. The Dow is expected to reach 33560 (+/- 1%) in the overnight market between April 5, 2021 and April 6, 2021.
Dow: Algorithm Changes
After the close on Monday, March 29, 2021, the predicted model of futures price structure algorithms changed dramatically. This occurred after a tense day of volatility, margin calls, and calculations of big bank losses. It appears that plans have changed with an accelerated schedule to start a decline this week.
Gold: Current Price Structure
The current daily price chart structure developed between August 7, 2020 and March 18, 2021 is 2.52 times longer in duration than a similar structure that was constructed between August 26, 2019 and November 20, 2019. Based on futures trader positions and expectation of a sharp decline in the Dow by May 5, 2021, gold is expected to follow the pattern of the 2019 price structure. A move up to 1950 prior to dropping to 1517 (+/-2%) would align with the March 3, 2021 post.
Silver: Adjustments
Adjustments in commercial trader positions and the price structure show silver moving above 29.00 by April 12, 2021 prior to falling to 21.00 by April 16, 2021.
Dow: Hourly Charts
The algorithm(s) that ran between 6:00 p.m. (EST) on January 16, 2020 and 09:00 a.m. (EST) on January 24, 2020, as illustrated on a one hour chart, is very similar to the hourly chart developed between 10:00 p.m. on March 17, 2021 and 4:00 p.m. on March 26, 2021. This would indicate that a short decline is expected between March 29, 2021 and April 1, 2021. Another peak would follow with a very sharp decline going into May 5, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Bitcoin: Bitcoin vs Dollar
On January 4, 1971 the EuroUSD index started trading with an opening value of 0.5353. By December 3, 1979 the EuroUSD index hit a high of 1.1418 before starting a decline in January 1980. Thirty-nine years after the EuroUSD index started trading, the BTCUSD (Bitcoin/USD) index started trading on July 19, 2010 with an opening value of 0.08584. It has taken Bitcoin 11 years to develop a structure that is similar to the EuroUSD that ran from 1971 to 1980. As the Dow, S&P500, and Nasdaq start their long term decline in 2021, the value of the U.S. Dollar will rise just as it did between 1980 and 1985.
It was noted in the March 1, 2021 post that calculations indicate global currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Euro are expected to retest their previous 2020 lows by early 2023 as the U.S. Dollar moves higher. Bitcoin is also expected to have a significant decline for several years, similar to what occurred with the EuroUSD index between 1980 and 1985.
Dow: 2022 Crash
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
What occurred between May 2007 and May 2008 has been replicated on a large scale between January 2018 and March 2021, as shown in the charts above. Based on the 2007-2008 structure, calculations indicate a major market crash similar to October 2008 is expected to start on September 9, 2022.
Silver: Short Positions Update
The short term silver price structure from June 28, 2011 to September 13, 2011 is similar to the price structure from November 30, 2020 to March 9, 2021. Commercial Futures Traders silver short positions on March 9, 2021 were 8% higher than they were on September 13, 2011. This post updates the March 7, 2021 entry (Silver: Short Positions) to indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48, by March 30, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Repeating Trend Lines
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A review of the 2018, 2019-2020, and 2021 trend lines shown above indicates a significant decline is expected to start by the second quarter of 2021. In the first chart there were 9 trading days between September 21, 2018 and October 3, 2018. In the second chart there were 18 trading days between January 17, 2020 and February 12, 2020. If this pattern continues the Dow should peak above the 2021 trend line in the 3rd chart, pullback and then hit a final peak in April. This pattern would explain the steady accumulation of Commercial Futures Trader short positions in the S&P500 and long positions in the VIX.
Dow: Broadening Formation
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
In the February 6, 2021 post (SP500: Broadening Formation) it was noted that an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern was forming in the SPDR SP500 ETF Trust (SPY). Since that time the SPY has declined to 381.72. Since February 16, 2021, a broadening formation has developed in the Dow, as shown in the chart above. This is also very clear in the Futures market and it is expected to be a prelude to a decline. Underlying positions in the Futures market indicate Commercial Traders are expecting a decline in the Dow and S&P500.
Silver: Short Positions
Current structural calculations indicate Commercial Traders are positioning for a decline in silver this month that is expected to hit 19.48 by March 23, 2021. A long term decline in silver is planned based on the significant number of short positions held by Commercial Traders. The U.S. Dollar is expected to move higher over the next two years and drive metal prices lower.
Dow: Decline Offset
The Senate approved the coronavirus relief bill. This could offset a decline that is expected on Monday, March 8, 2021.
Dow: Sharp Drop
Unless something changes, current price structures indicate a sharp drop in the Dow on Monday, March 8, 2021.
Update: A decline of at least 2.4% is expected on Monday, March 8, 2021.
Gold: Long Term Trend
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The chart above provides some perspective on long term projections for gold. Commercial Trader positions indicate they are in the process of moving gold down to the red trend line. A decline below 1517 (+/- 2%) is still expected. Based on underlying futures trader positions, long term calculations indicate the current trend is expected to be a repeat performance of 2000 to 2011. Note that the trend lines start in the early 1800’s.
Crude Oil: 2021
Calculations indicate the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay in a range that will support a move upward in crude oil during the next nine months.
Dow: Bear Market
The Dow is expected to close higher today before starting a bear market with a steady decline going into 2022.
Dow: Realigned Expectations
The bond market has realigned expectations for the Dow. A decline has started and the Dow is expected to reach 19,642 (+/-2%) by April 14, 2021. Volatility will continue to increase.
Dow: 2021 vs 2007
Based on the historic size of 30-Yr Bond short positions held by futures traders, structural timing calculations indicate the Dow is expected to hit its peak this week prior to turning lower. Futures traders were in a similar situation prior to the Dow peaking in October 2007.
Gold: Long Term
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Underlying gold trader positions along a 30 year timeline indicate futures traders are adjusting their positions at a faster pace than what occurred between October 1999 and April 2001. The falling wedge formation shown above provides an illustration that a long term low is near. The decline discussed on February 6, 2021 is still expected to occur and should be brief, as it was on February 16, 2001, prior to moving significantly higher over the long term.
Dow: Time is Short
On a 15 minute Futures chart for the Dow Jones index, it appears that February 17, 2021 at 19:30 (7:30 PM EST) is the equivalent of February 19, 2020 at 19:00 (7:00 PM EST). Time is short. If this thesis is correct, a decline has started and the Dow is expected to reach 26,892.10 (in the Futures market) by Friday, February 26, 2021. After this decline there will be a brief rally, followed by an even larger decline.
Dow: February Decline
In the Futures Market, it appears that the algorithm used to develop a Dow structure between 6:30 PM EST February 12, 2020 and 12:45 PM EST February 17, 2020 was also used to develop a similar structure on a shorter timeline between 08:30 AM EST February 10, 2021 and 16:45 PM February 12, 2021. Another February to March decline is expected.
Dow: Early Decline Update
Today, futures market activity indicates a long-term decline in the Dow is expected to start on Friday, February 12, 2021. Structures developed up to this point reflect plans that will ultimately take stock markets down to a 20+ year low by mid-2022.
Dow: Upcoming Decline
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Based on a review of Specialist activities between 1964 and 1974, it appears that major structural templates from this time period were modified and used on a large scale between 1999 and 2009. Current Designated Market Makers are expected to modify an October 2007 to March 2009 Dow template for a significant decline between 2021 and 2022. This template would initiate a decline by March 2021 and last until mid-2022. Unique data points shown below should be noted, as they align with what occurred during the peak of 2007. At this point there is a 90% chance the market will decline over the next two years in a format similar to what occurred during 2007-2009. Preliminary estimates indicate the Dow is expected to fall below 6000 by mid-2022. The following data was identified in the engrbytrade computer model.
Prerequisites:
30Yr T-Bond Non Commercial Trader Short Position Peak
Completed on 6/19/07
Completed on 11/3/20
Copper Peak vs Dollar Value
Completed on 9/25/07
Completed on 12/21/20
Silver: Decline Extended
During the short squeeze in silver between January 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021, it appears Market Makers sold a significant number of shares to retail investors rushing in to buy silver derivatives such as SLV. Commercial Futures Traders short positions remained relatively unchanged. This short squeeze is expected to extend the decline previously planned for silver. Adjustments in the engrbytrade silver model indicate a move to 13.93 is expected by August 25, 2021.