Intermarket structural analysis research
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Underlying data indicates Market Makers were engaged in a meaningful level of accumulation at the close on December 14, 2021. This accumulation relative to daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicates positioning within a broadening formation shown above will result in a brief decline to a range between 34389 and 34559 in the futures market before moving to higher levels.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate silver is in a position with the U.S. Dollar that is similar to where it was in September 2008 and is quickly approaching the point of initiating a decline to 18.81 (+/- 5%) before moving higher. After completing this decline, both silver and palladium are expected to move significantly higher over the next two years as stock markets collapse in 2022 and 2023. Gold is lagging behind, but its position could change quickly based on 2008 characteristics that are developing.
Additional data related to daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline is still expected with a move down to a range between 34389 and 34559 in the futures market prior to moving higher.
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show a repeating structure is in progress, which is similar to what was developed between September 20, 2021 and October 1, 2021. The Dow is expected to return to 34561 in the futures market to fill a gap created on December 5, 2021 at 6:00 p.m. (EST). Upon completion of this move, the Dow is expected to move higher.
As noted on December 3, 2021 the Dow moved above 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart today closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show the Dow is expected to move higher.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to show Bitcoin is in a long term accumulation phase noted in the October 30, 2021 post. This is also expected to be a volatile accumulation period on a much larger scale than what occurred during November 2018, and March 2020.
Intermarket futures trading data confirms crude oil has started a long-term decline based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. This decline is expected to be similar in nature to previous declines that include August 28, 2013 to February 11, 2016 (2 years 5 months 14 days: 897 days) and October 3, 2018 to April 20, 2020 (1 year 6 months 17 days: 565 days). The end result will be a return to the 1986 and 1998 base level of 10.80 after a period of decline that can take as long as 2 years.
When the Senate approved a Continuing Resolution it deferred the start of a market decline noted on November 30, 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. This approval action aligns with the 1929 peak structure and would place a Dow peak near 38,000 by March 2022. Pending any further action by Congress or the Fed, a significant decline would follow the March peak. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations will track the progress of this move.
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed the Dow is expected to move higher as noted on November 27, 2021. This move up is expected to reach 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart for the purpose of closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. It has also been observed that very large block trading (>1M) is limited.
In addition to the non-existent accumulation of very large block trades on Monday, November 29, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicate a 2018 4th quarter decline is expected to start between December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021.
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a retracement to 35782 in the futures market is expected prior to moving lower. This retracement structure would be similar to what occurred between September 21, 2021 and September 27, 2021. It appears that a limited number of very large blocks were accumulated during the sharp decline on November 26, 2021.
On November 1, 2021 the Dow: 83% post noted that the Dow would start a decline on November 8, 2021. Congress passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on November 6, 2021. This was followed by the Dow peaking on Monday November 8, 2021 with a new all-time high while a significant number of very large block trades occurred between November 8, 2021 and November 9, 2021. Prior to this move, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations shifted to indicate the Dow will continue developing a declining structure. The chart shown below provides an update to the rising wedge discussed on November 1, 2021. As of Friday, November 19, 2021 the Dow landed on the 83% mark and is expected to continue moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Additional futures trading data revised 10Yr note interest rate structural calculations. This update indicates the 10Yr note interest rate is currently positioned to repeat a decline that is similar to what occurred between November 9, 2018 and September 3, 2019. A move to zero is expected by the third quarter of 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow hit an all-time high of 36565.73 on November 8, 2021. Prior to reaching this peak, calculations indicate the Dow repeated a unique set of daily structures similar to what occurred between July 29, 1929 and the peak on September 3, 1929. Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the Dow will continue to develop a declining structure similar to what occurred between September 11, 1929 and October 4, 1929. The current decline is expected to continue into mid-December 2021.
As noted on August 1, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicated a rise in the US Dollar during the remainder of 2021. This rise is expected to continue going into the end of 2021.
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and large block trade patterns continue to indicate a decline is expected to occur. Additional data shows this decline will follow Treasury debt limit concerns going into mid-December.
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a brief mid-November decline will take place before moving higher. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between May 10, 2021 and May 19, 2021.
On January 15, 2020 China signed an Economic and Trade Agreement with the U.S. Within 30 days of signing this agreement, the Dow started a sharp decline on February 13, 2020. This was just one day before the trade agreement went into effect, as noted in the following article.
US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods in 2020 and 2021
This trade agreement expires on December 31, 2021. Watch for a stock market decline to start in January 2022.
Based on Congress passing the $1 trillion infrastructure bill and upcoming $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better Plan”, structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 38,610 (+/- 2.5%) before moving lower.
On November 5, 2021 the House passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. This last minute approval provides Wall Street with the means to complete a 1929 peak. Calculations will be revised as needed to incorporate this change.
Disclaimer
On November 2, 2021 the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index hit an all-time high of 18,246.51 with a significant number of large blocks trading during the day. Tuesday’s candlestick formation is typical for a market that is peaking.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Over the last three years, one key trait of the Dow (and S&P500) that stands out has been the rising wedge format with a consistent drop point on the 83% (+/-1%) mark, as shown below. The Dow is expected to peak by November 4, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) followed by a sharp decline starting the week of November 8, 2021.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
Long term preliminary intermarket futures trading data indicates crude oil is completing a topping process based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. A volatile decline is expected to last as long as 2 years before reaching a level below 20.00 by 2023. Additional data will be needed during the remainder of 2021 to clarify this expected outcome.
Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin’s current value has moved below Futures Traders expectations relative to the U.S. Dollar. A similar situation occurred when the U.S. Dollar moved higher between January 2018 and December 2018. A long term accumulation period for Bitcoin started in December 2018 and continued until May 2020. Bitcoin is starting another accumulation period, as observed during the last week of October 2021, and is expected to continue moving higher over the long term.
Daily calculations indicate the Dow is completing its move through the rising wedge discussed on October 25, 2021 and initiating a process to start a decline. This decline is expected to move the Dow back down to 33,613 (+/-1%) using a structure similar to what was developed between June 1, 2021 and June 18, 2021.