Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to indicate interest rates are expected to move lower in 2022, regardless of Federal Reserve member forecasts. Projections indicate the 10-Yr note rate dropping below its 2020 low of 0.75%.
SP500: 2018 Rising Wedge
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A detailed review of SP500 daily calculations, associated structural calculations and underlying futures trading data indicates the current rising wedge shown in the chart above is repeating a SP500 rising wedge that developed between June 28, 2018 and October 3, 2018. Additional data will be reviewed as the index moves higher.
Crude Oil: Expanding Wedge
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Over the last two trading days daily engrbytrade™ WTI Crude Oil calculations and underlying structural calculations show several changes indicating crude oil is expected to move significantly higher in 2022. Initial calculations show crude oil reaching a level of 112.91 before moving lower. The expanding wedge structure shown in the chart above, along with underlying futures trading data calculations are very similar to what appeared in June 2010.
Dow: Rising Wedge Expected
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirm a move to 38,473 is in progress. Structural calculations indicate a rising wedge is expected to develop with the Dow hitting a peak by February 2022. This peak would be similar to what occurred in January 1973 and January 2000.
Dow: Move to 38473
As of 11:46 a.m. (EST) on December 20, 2021 Dow futures hit a low of 34548 while dropping within a predetermined range of 34389 to 34559, as originally noted on December 16, 2021. Preliminary calculations indicate a move in the Dow futures to 38,473 (+/-1%) is expected.
Dow: Deferred Move
The deferral of a move down to a range between 34389 and 34559, as noted on December 17, 2021, was initiated during the overnight futures trading session prior to markets opening on Monday, December 20, 2021. Upon completion of this decline to fill previous gaps, a move to 38,000 is still expected based on Market Maker accumulation activity and daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations.
Dow: Move To 38,000
Market Maker accumulation activity between December 13, 2021 and December 14, 2021 along with daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations at the market close on December 16, 2021 indicates the decline that was expected to a range between 34389 and 34559 will be deferred. A move upward is now expected to continue towards 38,000 on the Dow.
Gold: Decline to 1680
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Daily engrbytrade™ Gold calculations indicate gold is positioned for a decline as it moves through the descending triangle shown above. This decline is expected to be similar to what occurred between June 4, 2021 and June 18, 2021 with a move down to 1680.
Dow: Brief Decline
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Underlying data indicates Market Makers were engaged in a meaningful level of accumulation at the close on December 14, 2021. This accumulation relative to daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicates positioning within a broadening formation shown above will result in a brief decline to a range between 34389 and 34559 in the futures market before moving to higher levels.
Silver: Silver vs. U.S. Dollar
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate silver is in a position with the U.S. Dollar that is similar to where it was in September 2008 and is quickly approaching the point of initiating a decline to 18.81 (+/- 5%) before moving higher. After completing this decline, both silver and palladium are expected to move significantly higher over the next two years as stock markets collapse in 2022 and 2023. Gold is lagging behind, but its position could change quickly based on 2008 characteristics that are developing.
Dow: Decline Expected
Additional data related to daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline is still expected with a move down to a range between 34389 and 34559 in the futures market prior to moving higher.
Dow: Repeating Structure
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show a repeating structure is in progress, which is similar to what was developed between September 20, 2021 and October 1, 2021. The Dow is expected to return to 34561 in the futures market to fill a gap created on December 5, 2021 at 6:00 p.m. (EST). Upon completion of this move, the Dow is expected to move higher.
Dow: Gaps Closed
As noted on December 3, 2021 the Dow moved above 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart today closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show the Dow is expected to move higher.
Bitcoin: Volatile Accumulation
Intermarket Futures trading data calculations continue to show Bitcoin is in a long term accumulation phase noted in the October 30, 2021 post. This is also expected to be a volatile accumulation period on a much larger scale than what occurred during November 2018, and March 2020.
Crude Oil: Long Term Decline
Intermarket futures trading data confirms crude oil has started a long-term decline based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. This decline is expected to be similar in nature to previous declines that include August 28, 2013 to February 11, 2016 (2 years 5 months 14 days: 897 days) and October 3, 2018 to April 20, 2020 (1 year 6 months 17 days: 565 days). The end result will be a return to the 1986 and 1998 base level of 10.80 after a period of decline that can take as long as 2 years.
Dow: March 2022
When the Senate approved a Continuing Resolution it deferred the start of a market decline noted on November 30, 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. This approval action aligns with the 1929 peak structure and would place a Dow peak near 38,000 by March 2022. Pending any further action by Congress or the Fed, a significant decline would follow the March peak. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations will track the progress of this move.
Dow: Closing Gaps
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations confirmed the Dow is expected to move higher as noted on November 27, 2021. This move up is expected to reach 35789 on the 5 minute futures chart for the purpose of closing various gaps created between November 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021. It has also been observed that very large block trading (>1M) is limited.
Dow: 2018 4th Quarter
In addition to the non-existent accumulation of very large block trades on Monday, November 29, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicate a 2018 4th quarter decline is expected to start between December 3, 2021 and December 15, 2021.
Dow: Limited Accumulation
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a retracement to 35782 in the futures market is expected prior to moving lower. This retracement structure would be similar to what occurred between September 21, 2021 and September 27, 2021. It appears that a limited number of very large blocks were accumulated during the sharp decline on November 26, 2021.
Dow: 83% Update
On November 1, 2021 the Dow: 83% post noted that the Dow would start a decline on November 8, 2021. Congress passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on November 6, 2021. This was followed by the Dow peaking on Monday November 8, 2021 with a new all-time high while a significant number of very large block trades occurred between November 8, 2021 and November 9, 2021. Prior to this move, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations shifted to indicate the Dow will continue developing a declining structure. The chart shown below provides an update to the rising wedge discussed on November 1, 2021. As of Friday, November 19, 2021 the Dow landed on the 83% mark and is expected to continue moving lower.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Interest Rates: 10Yr Move to Zero
Additional futures trading data revised 10Yr note interest rate structural calculations. This update indicates the 10Yr note interest rate is currently positioned to repeat a decline that is similar to what occurred between November 9, 2018 and September 3, 2019. A move to zero is expected by the third quarter of 2022.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: 1929 vs 2021 Peak
The Dow hit an all-time high of 36565.73 on November 8, 2021. Prior to reaching this peak, calculations indicate the Dow repeated a unique set of daily structures similar to what occurred between July 29, 1929 and the peak on September 3, 1929. Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the Dow will continue to develop a declining structure similar to what occurred between September 11, 1929 and October 4, 1929. The current decline is expected to continue into mid-December 2021.
Dollar: Year End
As noted on August 1, 2021, futures trading data calculations indicated a rise in the US Dollar during the remainder of 2021. This rise is expected to continue going into the end of 2021.
Dow: Debt Limit
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and large block trade patterns continue to indicate a decline is expected to occur. Additional data shows this decline will follow Treasury debt limit concerns going into mid-December.
Dow: Mid-November Decline
Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a brief mid-November decline will take place before moving higher. This move is expected to be similar to what occurred between May 10, 2021 and May 19, 2021.