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Futures trading data indicates gold is positioned for a decline as it moves through the descending triangle shown above. A price move to 1435 is still expected before moving higher.
Gold: Descending Triangle
Bitcoin: October 15, 2018
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Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin appears to be in a similar structural position relative to where it was on October 15, 2018. A decline is expected to start by November 15, 2021 with an accumulation period occurring between November 2021 and December 2021 prior to moving higher.
Dow: Distributions Continue
On June 5, 2020 a long-term process was started to distribute large quantities of stock from hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms and Market Maker trading accounts to retail investors, pension funds, etc. Within the Dow 30 group, every stock has had significant distributions, as described by Richard Ney, during periods when prices moved sharply higher. As the economy continues to collapse, many of the large block sellers on Wall Street will be out of the market and retail investors will watch the value of their investment accounts dwindle while stock markets decline. The main stream media will be used to bolster confidence in the markets while pension funds are forced to sell when prices drop and they cannot meet their obligations. This process is no different than what occurred prior to previous market declines, such as 1929, and 2008.
Economy: Global Collapse Guaranteed
A global market collapse and depression are guaranteed using the following plan.
Economy: Labor Shortage
Small businesses frustrated by labor shortages afflicting the economy, NFIB finds
Small businesses cannot find enough skilled workers or supplies to keep up with demand.
Crude Oil: Significant Decline
In addition to the Dow’s expected decline in October 2021, Crude Oil (WTI) is in the process of completing the replication of its February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure based on futures trading data calculations, as noted on August 7, 2021. On October 8, 2021, Crude Oil (WTI) moved into the 78.17 (+/- 2%) range with a close of $79.35. A significant decline in crude oil is expected to start next week and last until late December 2021 with a move down to the $35.00 level as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
Dow: October Decline
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The Dow continues to track with the October 2007 to December 2007 structure. Short term debt ceiling agreements will result in an October decline going into November 2, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) where the Dow is expected to reach a low of 31121.15 (+/- 1%).
Dow: December 2007
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The current Dow structure is a repeat of October 2007 to December 2007. The next move by market makers will be a reflection of December 27, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Dow: Algorithm Adjustment
In the October 1, 2021 post, it was noted that the last day of an initial decline was expected on October 13, 2021 (+1/- 1 trading day). Today stock exchange algorithms made an adjustment to the decline timeline where the Dow is now expected to reach a low of 31107.59 (+/- 1%) by October 12, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Silver: October Decline
In the August 28, 2021 post it was noted that calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. As of October 1, 2021, current structural calculations indicate silver is in a similar position to where it was on August 8, 2008. Based on 2008 vs 2021 structural data, silver is expected to move down to $16.00 (+/- 5%) by October 18, 2021.
Dow: Initial Decline
The Dow continues to track with the September 23, 2008 to September 30, 2008 structure. An initial decline is expected from October 4, 2021 through October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day). This decline has the potential to move the Dow down to 30521 (+/- 1%).
Dow: 2008 vs 2021
Structural and intermarket futures trading data calculations continue to have similar results between the July 15, 2008 to September 22, 2008 Dow structure and the June 18, 2021 to September 28, 2021 Dow structure. This, along with strategic positioning of major currencies discussed in the September 25, 2021 post indicates a significant decline in the Dow is expected during the next 13 trading days (+/- 1 trading day). This decline will have a negative impact on various financial instruments and commodities.
Dow: Entered Target Range
On September 27, 2021 the Dow entered its 1% target range (with a high of 35061.12) as noted on September 20, 2021. There is a 60% chance the Dow will reach 35,359 by October 13, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: Daily Gap Filled
The gap between the Dow September 17, 2021 close and September 18, 2021 open was filled today. This confirms a move upward is expected to continue into October 2021, as noted on September 20, 2021.
Dow: Algorithm Update
With the sharp decline today, updates to short term algorithm calculations indicate a move up to 35,359 (+/-1%) by October 13, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Breaking Down
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To put the Dow’s position in perspective, it has dropped out of the rising wedge that was developed during 2021. Based on short term algorithm calculations the Dow is expected to move back up to the lower trend line before starting a meaningful decline. A leading indicator for the Dow is the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A decline in the Transportation average did start early during 1998 and 2007 prior to the Dow falling. It appears a steady decline in the Transportation average has started with the Dow not far behind
Dow: Extended Duration
Yesterday’s 292 point decline provided an update to short term algorithm calculations that included an extended duration with a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 by October 6, 2021.
Dow: Repeating Algorithms
Monitoring of short term algorithm calculations indicates a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 in the futures market by Sept 20, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). Essentially a repeat of the structure developed between August 19, 2021 and August 25, 2021.
Dow: Decline Scenarios
Based on futures trading data calculations, exchange insiders are developing two distinct scenarios for a decline.
1. A Dow structure similar to the October – December decline in 2018.
2. A Dow structure similar to the August – October decline in 2008.
As of today, there is a 52% chance the upcoming decline will be similar to the August – October 2008 crash. What is very clear is that the U.S. Dollar will be an important part of this decline. A significant shift from global currencies and stocks into the U.S. Dollar will take place.
Dow: Year End Decline
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate plans are progressing for the Dow to peak after September 16, 2021 and start a decline during the last quarter of 2021. This move is expected to be similar to October –December 2018 with the US Dollar moving higher during this period. Upon completion of this decline, the Dow is expected to move on to higher levels following the engrbytrade perspective.
Silver: Two Part Move
Intermarket trading data calculations indicate a two part move to lower levels going into 2022. The first part is expected to move silver down to 19.28 before the end of 2021. Following the decline in 2021, a second move down to 16.35 is expected to start during the first quarter of 2022. It should be noted that over the long term, calculations have shown silver is expected to produce a similar parabolic structure as the move between November 2001 and April 2011. The current long term structure started in September 2018.
Dow: Moving Higher
The Dow’s 15 minute futures chart structure between August 23, 2021 and August 27, 2021 appears to be giving Wall Street what they want. The right-angled and descending broadening formation will provide a pathway for the Dow to move higher.
Crude Oil: Sharp Decline
On August 7, 2021 it was noted that Crude oil (WTI) appeared to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. An abrupt change within in the intermarket futures structural data this week indicates a sharp decline is expected during the next two months.
Dow: Fed Warning
A warning from Fed President Robert Kaplan indicates a peak in the Dow could come much sooner than expected. Underlying futures trading data calculations indicate positions in the US Dollar are now in alignment with calculations from August 11, 2008 when the Dow hit its peak prior to moving lower.
Crude Oil: Replicating 2018
Crude oil (WTI) appears to be replicating the February 8, 2018 to October 3, 2018 price structure. Based on futures trading data calculations the position of Crude Oil on Friday, August 6, 2021 would be a nominal equivalent to Crude Oil on August 13, 2018. This structure indicates a peak of 78.17 (+/- 2%) is expected by October 1, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). A sharp decline in Crude Oil is also expected during the last quarter of 2021.