With the sharp decline today, updates to short term algorithm calculations indicate a move up to 35,359 (+/-1%) by October 13, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Breaking Down
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
To put the Dow’s position in perspective, it has dropped out of the rising wedge that was developed during 2021. Based on short term algorithm calculations the Dow is expected to move back up to the lower trend line before starting a meaningful decline. A leading indicator for the Dow is the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A decline in the Transportation average did start early during 1998 and 2007 prior to the Dow falling. It appears a steady decline in the Transportation average has started with the Dow not far behind
Dow: Extended Duration
Yesterday’s 292 point decline provided an update to short term algorithm calculations that included an extended duration with a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 by October 6, 2021.
Dow: Repeating Algorithms
Monitoring of short term algorithm calculations indicates a move up to a range of 35,698 – 35,785 in the futures market by Sept 20, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). Essentially a repeat of the structure developed between August 19, 2021 and August 25, 2021.
Dow: Decline Scenarios
Based on futures trading data calculations, exchange insiders are developing two distinct scenarios for a decline.
1. A Dow structure similar to the October – December decline in 2018.
2. A Dow structure similar to the August – October decline in 2008.
As of today, there is a 52% chance the upcoming decline will be similar to the August – October 2008 crash. What is very clear is that the U.S. Dollar will be an important part of this decline. A significant shift from global currencies and stocks into the U.S. Dollar will take place.
Dow: Year End Decline
Intermarket futures trading data calculations indicate plans are progressing for the Dow to peak after September 16, 2021 and start a decline during the last quarter of 2021. This move is expected to be similar to October –December 2018 with the US Dollar moving higher during this period. Upon completion of this decline, the Dow is expected to move on to higher levels following the engrbytrade perspective.
Dow: Moving Higher
The Dow’s 15 minute futures chart structure between August 23, 2021 and August 27, 2021 appears to be giving Wall Street what they want. The right-angled and descending broadening formation will provide a pathway for the Dow to move higher.
Dow: Fed Warning
A warning from Fed President Robert Kaplan indicates a peak in the Dow could come much sooner than expected. Underlying futures trading data calculations indicate positions in the US Dollar are now in alignment with calculations from August 11, 2008 when the Dow hit its peak prior to moving lower.
Dow: Ascending Triangle
Based on a start date and time of July 26, 2021 at 4:15 a.m. the Dow appears to be forming an ascending triangle within a 15 minute futures chart. This structure would support a move to higher levels in August 2021.
Dow: Move to 38,000
On July 28, 2021 the Federal Reserve issued a policy directive to complete a 1993 to 2021 Dow structure. The Dow is expected to move to 38,000 (+/- 1%) in August 2021. Following this move, the Federal Reserve should make a decision to raise margin rates during their Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 26-28, 2021. Retail traders will be fully invested as institutional traders complete their liquidation of equities. A significant decline is planned for the last quarter of 2021.
Dow: Trend Continues
Dow Futures Trading data and structural research related to the July 4, 2021 post continues to indicate a trend of moving to higher levels that align with the Dow. This is expected to occur between July and September 2021 while the NASDAQ and SP500 trend higher.
Dow: 1913 to 1929 Model
Structural research indicates the Federal Reserve started developing a stock market model in 1913 that ultimately drove prices higher going into September 1929 before collapsing the markets. Comparing data structures covering the last 28 years this same model has taken shape on a scale that is 100 times larger than the 1913 to 1929 model. As of July 2, 2021 a closing price of 34,786 in the current model would be within 1% of a relative position of 344.7 in the Dow structure on July 25, 1929. Assuming the Federal Reserve continues to support this model, the Dow would be expected to reach 38,120 (+/- 1%) by September 2021 before collapsing. Research also indicates key areas of Dow Futures Trading data show a trend shift that would support a scenario for a final move to higher levels between July and September 2021.
Dow: Modified Structure
Today, shortly after 8:00 a.m. (EST) when an announcement of a deal with the Senate infrastructure group was made, Dow algorithms were modified from a structural decline similar to that of March 2020 to a retracement structure found between November 27, 2007 and December 10, 2007. A decline is expected with a move down in the futures market to 31,712 (+/- 1%) by August 4, 2021 (+/-1 trading day).
Dow: 2021 Collapse
Data structures developed as of today indicate the Dow is expected to decline to 30,538 (+/- 1%) by July 15, 2021. These same structures are also following a path that is similar to 2008. Based on existing structures and current timeline, there is a 90% chance stock markets will collapse in October 2021.
Dow: Within 1% of 33,818
The Dow moved up to within 1% of 33,818 as noted this morning at 4:44 a.m. (EST). A move to a significantly lower level is expected to start by Wednesday, June 23, 2021. Structural data will be reviewed prior to this move.
Dow: Retracement Upward
On June 19, 2021 it was noted that based on algorithm adjustments the Dow would move down to 32,756 (+/- 1%) by Monday, June 21, 2021. On June 20 at 11:00 p.m. the Dow hit a low of 32,903 and was within the applicable 1% range. A retracement upward to 33,818 (+/- 1%) is expected by Thursday, June 24, 2021 before starting a move to significantly lower levels.
Dow: Key Markers
As the Dow continued its decline on Friday, key markers were noted within its futures market structure that had similar attributes to the February 24, 2020 to February 27, 2020 decline. At this point algorithm adjustments for this decline are expected to take the Dow down to 32,756 (+/- 1%) by Monday, June 21, 2021 before starting a retracement move upward.
Dow: Decline Adjustment
Intraday volatility on June 17, 2021 provided additional data for an adjustment to include an initial drop to 30,781.7 (+/- 1%) by June 22, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) followed by a retracement up to 32324 (+/- 1%) before ultimately falling to 25,653.
Dow: Decline Accelerating
Based on current model calculations, the Dow’s decline is accelerating and is expected to reach 29,800 (+/- 1%) by June 22, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Model Reference Point
As of 1:00 p.m. (EST) today the Dow one hour futures chart structure is in a relatively similar position to the one hour model structure that appeared on February 20, 2020 at 8:00 p.m. The Dow is still expected to continue moving lower.
Dow: June Descending Triangle
Note that in the futures market a descending triangle was started on June 3, 2021.
Dow: Exhibit 1
It has become increasing clear to some investment management firms, such as Morgan Stanley, that stock markets have hit their peak. Exhibit 1 in the following Zerohedge article illustrates this.
“We Took Out The June 2007 Highs”: Morgan Stanley’s Sell Signal Just Hit An All Time High
This aligns with the engrbytrade SP500 entry on June 5, 2021 describing an expected decline.
Dow: Structure Completion
The Dow futures structure developed during the past 9 trading days is nearing completion. If the algorithm continues as planned a decline is expected to start on June 8, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). The Dow moved within the target range of 34,986 (+/- 1%) on June 1, 2021 as noted on May 27, 2021.
Dow: Hit 1% Target Range
The Dow hit 34,639 at 5:20 a.m. in early futures market trading based on the 34,986 (+/- 1%) [34,637 to 35,335] target calculation noted on 5/26/21.
Dow: Indication of a Top
Algorithms appear to have been initiated, modified, or deactivated over the past two trading days. This provided a futures market structure that is similar to what was developed between 3:00 p.m. on January 31, 2020 and 3:00 p.m. on February 12, 2020. The current structure runs between 10:00 a.m. on May 19, 2021 to 8:00 a.m. on May 27, 2021. This indicates a top was hit today. There is a 10% chance the Dow will move to 34, 986 (+/- 1%) as discussed on May 26, 2021.