In the following June 16, 2022 interview Peter Eliades notes that markets will move significantly lower this fall.
Dow: Preliminary update 33,913
Based on futures trading data, rate of acceleration, and preliminary risk adjusted structural calculations the Dow is expected to reach point eight of the Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model (discussed previously) between August 4, 2022 and August 16, 2022 within a trading range of 33,913 (+/- 1.5%) before moving lower. This point in the model is a key area where the Dow is expected to start a significant decline during the last half of 2022. Updates will be provided as needed.
Dow: 2008 vs 2022 Reference Point
As noted on June 27, 2022, the Dow is in the process of completing an Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure. The 2022 Dow structure has similar design attributes as the smaller version from 2007-2008 and, based on its current position, a move above the June 1, 2022 high of 33,272 is expected to occur. Additional futures market data will be needed to identify reference point 8 where the Dow is expected to start moving lower.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Repeat of April 2022
Algorithms are in charge and repeating the basic double peak sequence that occurred between March 29, 2022 and April 21, 2022. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations still indicate a decline is expected below the lower (red) trendline shown above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Decline Below The Trendline
Before moving higher, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate a decline should occur with a move below the lower trendline of the current falling wedge formation. This chart structure continues to develop into an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model TM formation, which is typically found within intraday futures charts. A structure similar to this can be found in the 1-hour Dow futures chart between February 10, 2022 and February 24, 2022. A sharp decline below 28,405 is expected before moving higher as it did between February 24, 2022 and March 30, 2022.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Strategic Long-Term Positions
Futures trading data calculations indicate very significant and strategic long-term positions were constructed by institutions between June 22, 2022 and June 28, 2022. These positions are scaled relative to what was developed on March 24, 2009, September 1, 2015, February 23, 2016, March 24, 2020, May 19, 2020, June 23, 2020, and March 2, 2021. At a minimum the Dow is expected to move up to 35, 373 (+/-1%).
Dow: Repeating Structures
The following appears to repeat a smaller structure created between October 11, 2007 and November 27, 2007. This indicates a move back up to 35,000 is expected followed by a sharp decline later this year.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Falling Wedge (Reversal)
In addition to the Engulfing Bullish Candle noted on July 2, 2022, a Falling Wedge (Reversal) has formed indicating a move back up to 35,000 is expected.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Engulfing Bullish Candle
The Dow is still in the process of completing an Engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model, as noted on June 27, 2022. On Friday, July 1, 2022 the Dow and S&P 500 closed with an engulfing bullish candle pattern. Based on this pattern, daily calculations indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 33,268 (+/- 1%). Weekly calculations indicate a potential exists to move above 35,000, but additional data will be needed to confirm this.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Decline below 30,000
Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the Dow will briefly decline below 30,000 before moving higher. This drop will be similar to the structures that were developed between September 20, 2021 to October 1, 2021, and February 24, 2022 to March 8, 2022. One purpose of this decline will be to fill various gaps in the futures market that were created since June 20, 2022. Upon completion of this decline, the move upward is expected to continue.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Dow is currently in the process of completing an engrbytrade Eight Point Trading ModelTM structure as shown in the chart above. In the past this structure has typically been seen as a recurring event within futures market intraday structures. One example would be the S&P500 one hour chart between March 29, 2022 and April 25, 2022. Based on the structure shown below, a sharp decline in the Dow to 25,377 is expected upon completing the move between point 7 and point 8.
Dow: 1974 Model
Based on the Dow update on June 18, 2022, a 1974 model has been added to the engrbytrade™ Dow Model series.
Dow: Update July 11, 1974
Additional data with revised calculations related to the 1974 Dow structure noted on June 17, 2022 indicate that June 17, 2022 equals July 11, 1974. A move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) is still expected prior to moving lower. This would place a significant decline going into October 2022.
Dow: February 13, 1974
In order to complete a significant coordinated decline during the last half of this year, Market Makers are switching to the 1974 Dow structure today where June 17, 2022 equals February 13, 1974. Updated structural calculations show the Dow is expected to move up to 32,630 (+/- 1%) prior to moving lower.
Dow: Market Rally
Current engrbytrade™ Dow calculations are in line with Peter Eliades’ latest projections.
Dow: Technical Indicators
For technical indicator traders, be aware that several indicators such as the CCI, RSI, Stochastic %K, William’s % R, TRIX, and Chaikin are in a very similar position to where they were on February 26, 2020.
Dow: Options Expiration
Preliminary engrbytrade™ timeline calculations indicate the Dow is expected to start moving higher by June 16, 2022, just prior to options expiration. This move up will also be dependent on very large block trade activity prior to June 17, 2022.
Dow: Significant collapse
The Dow’s move down to a low of 31,387.84 on June 10, 2022 places it in a position for an immediate drop below 31,250 to fill a gap that was created in overnight futures trading on May 22, 2022. Based on updated structural calculations and a lack of very large block trading, the Dow is expected to quickly move back up to 32,584 (+/-1%) in the futures market. An absence of big block trades and volatility will continue as the Dow initiates a setup for a significant collapse. This move has the potential of reaching a low of 23,262 (+/- 2%).
Dow: Pullback to 32,000
The Dow is on track with the June 3, 2022 post noting that a pullback to 32,000 is in order before moving higher. A move to 36,262 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Dow: 36,262 (+/- 1%)
Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations, very large block trade trends, and structural calculation updates indicate the Dow is expected to move up to 36,262 (+/- 1%) in the futures market before moving lower. A brief pullback to 32,000 is still in order prior to moving higher. Dire warnings from companies such JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have led investors to quickly sell and provide Market Makers/Exchange Insiders with the inventory (stock) needed to move markets higher over the very short term. Look for this narrative to move from dire warnings to a positive outlook as the Dow moves closer to 36,262. Market Makers/Exchange Insiders will then start selling to investors in preparation for another decline.
Dow: October 29, 2021
The Dow has moved quickly to the point where it currently aligns with October 29, 2021. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations show a peak of 34, 580 (+/- 1%) is still expected.
Dow: Brief Decline
Note that a brief declined is expected. This will be similar to the October 8, 2021 through October 13, 2021 decline. Upon completing this move the Dow will continue to move higher as noted May 24, 2022.
Dow: October 1, 2021
Over the last two weeks, very large block trades have been crossing the tape. This is very similar to large block trading between March 7, 2022 and March 10, 2022 prior to the Dow moving higher. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations and structural data confirms the Dow 15 minute chart has started to repeat a structure similar to that of October 1, 2021 to November 8, 2021 with an expected peak of 34,580 (+/- 1%).
Dow: January 22, 2008
The March 29, 2022 to May 20, 2022 daily Dow futures chart structure is very similar to the December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008 structure. In the Dow 2 hour futures chart between April 21, 2022 and May 20, 2022 a decline developed that was similar to the engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model(TM) shown below. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations continue to show a move upward is expected with a retracement from 31,261 to 33,010 (+/-2%). To put 2022 into perspective, the decline from April 21, 2022 to May 20, 2022 is 2.22 times larger than the decline from December 11, 2007 to January 22, 2008.
Dow: Market Makers Repositioning
Daily calculations indicate Market Makers are in the process of repositioning and reallocating their inventory (stock) in preparation for a move higher, just as they did between September 30, 2021 and October 6, 2021. The Dow is expected to move up prior to the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14-15, 2022.