A detailed review of the current Dow structure indicates a peak is expected on August 12, 2020 (+/- 1.5 trading days). This move should allow sufficient time for Market Makers to close the gap created on February 24, 2020. Following this peak the Dow is expected fall below 17,000 by mid-October 2020.
Dow: August Decline
Structural calculations currently show a decline starting on July 29, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) and reaching 18481 (+/-1%) by August 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this decline, a short term move upward is expected prior to dropping into the last quarter of 2020.
Dow: Gap Filled
Between June 17, 2020 and June 26, 2020, the Dow moved from 26,119.61 to 25,015.55. Today, Market Makers filled the gap that occurred between June 10, 2020 and June 11, 2020. This move aligns with the development of a rising wedge starting from a low of 20,735.02 on April 2, 2020. It also confirms the intent of Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders to move the Dow down to 18481.
Dow: Structured Decline
On June 17, 2020 Futures Traders initiated the development of a basic Descending Triangle structure in preparation for a sharp decline in the Dow. Over the last five trading days calculations confirmed this structure has been designed to move the Dow down to 18481 by August 28, 2020. Volatility is expected to increase as the Dow moves lower over the next 45 trading days.
Dow: Volatile Decline
It should be noted that during the mid-June 2020 decline a select group of “short” exchange index products were under heavy accumulation during June 11 – 12, 2020. Historical data indicates that significant gaps, such as the one created on April 3 – 6, 2020 are expected to be filled. This would place the Dow in an extremely volatile range of 21447.81 (+/- 5%).
Dow: Early Decline
During the Federal Reserve Chairman’s testimony today, Futures Traders had a change of plans and developed a basic Descending Triangle structure as a prelude to a sharp decline in the Dow. This decline could be a minimum of 10% over the next 3 to 5 trading days.
Dow: Volatility Continues
As volatility continues to drive the Dow through extreme cycles each day it is still on track to move up to a peak of 27147 (+/- 0.5%) on Friday, June 19, 2020 before stopping and turning lower in July and August 2020. This peak is expected to have a retracement level of 78.6% based on a high of 29568.57 on February 12, 2020 and a low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020.
Dow: Asymmetric Decline
Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to conduct a short term move up to 27147 by June 19, 2020. The Dow is then expected to move down in an asymmetrical form, as compared to the March – June move upward, ultimately reaching 18481 by August 28, 2020. Closing the 2/24/20 gap would be deferred to a later date.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Over the last two days the Dow has been working through a typical engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model as shown below. This was a recurring event in the futures market during late April and early May. After completing this decline today a move back up to the 28750 crossing point is expected before starting a significant decline.
Dow: Crossing Points
The Dow is still expected to cross the following Futures Market targets prior to turning and moving down toward 18481.
Target, Original Date and Time Identified
28750 2/23/20 @ 18:00 (final crossing point)
28665.5 2/23/20 @ 19:39
28626 2/23/20 @ 21:22
28214.5 2/25/20 @ 02:16
Dow: Nikkei 225 Alignment
Current calculations indicate the Nikkei 225 is expected to continue its retracement into the February 21, 2020 to February 25, 2020 gap within 5 trading days. After entering this range the Nikkei 225 and Dow are expected to stall and start moving lower. Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 18481.
Dow: 1937 Parallel
Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders continue to fill minor gaps in the Dow structure on their way to closing a final gap created on February 24, 2020, just as they did on August 12, 1937 before starting a sharp decline. Similarities between 1937 and today are noted in the following interview.
RAY DALIO September 23, 2017 Interview
Dow: Filling the Gaps
Based on high volatility in the futures market related to filling an unusually high number of price gaps in the Dow over the last two months, Futures Traders have aligned their positions in an attempt to fill the gap created on the NYSE at the opening of February 24, 2020. Once this is complete a decline is expected to commence going into late 2020.
Dow: Retracement Peak
Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to hit a peak closing price of 25054.98 (+/-1%) this week. This will mark the end of the retracement structure and a decline should start immediately thereafter.
Dow: Extended Decline
The decline to 18590 (+/-1%) is still expected to occur by July 1, 2020, as noted on May 16, 2020. In addition to this, calculations indicate the Dow is expected to continue moving lower after July 1, 2020 to 15,178 (+/-1%) by July 15, 2020.
Dow: 24558 – 24559 Gap Filled
Due to a gap on the one minute futures chart that was left on April 30, 2020 at 06:52, Commercial Futures Traders pushed the Dow up to fill this gap before moving lower. Unfinished business still remains as noted on 5/8/20.
Dow: May to June Decline
Commercial Traders setup a series of positions last week in order to complete the second half of the March 23, 2020 to April 29, 2020 Dow retracement structure with a decline to 18,590 (+/-1%) by July 1, 2020. It is possible this decline could move below the 18,590 level. Additional notes will be added if this is expected.
Dow: Unfinished Business
A detailed review of Dow futures trading data revealed a gap down of 282 points occurred between 5:00 pm (EST) on February 21, 2020 and 6:00 pm(EST) on February 23, 2020. This gap was not filled and subsequently led NYSE Market Makers to open the Dow with a reading of 28,402.93 during the morning of February 24, 2020. To resolve this gap a move up to 28,892.70 will be needed in 2020 before conducting the next major decline. In the interim, the Dow is expected to hit a low of 18,213 (+/- 1%) by June 9, 2020 before moving higher to resolve any unfinished business from February 23, 2020. After moving up to 28,892.70, another decline is expected to occur that will be larger than the February to March 2020 decline.
Dow: 2020 – 2021 Collapse
Calculations continue to indicate the 2009 to 2020 Dow structure has been designed in a way that it will collapse very quickly in 2020. A deep decline is expected going into October 2020, ultimately reaching a low of 4964 in 2021. This target price aligns with long term engrbytrade embedded trade marker points.
Dow: 2020-2021
A detailed review of Dow structural data covering February, March and April 2020 indicates a decline is still expected to start this week. In addition to reaching 20,800 in May 2020, calculations revealed the current Dow structure is unstable and is expected to have a significant impact on markets in 2020 and 2021. The current rate of change in this structure indicates a potential decline to a level below 16,000 before the end of 2020.
Dow: Decline Continues
Market Maker activities over the last several trading days indicate a decline to 22,800 is expected to occur by Tuesday, April 28, 2020. Adjustments based on their activities also indicate that this decline will continue with a move down to 20,800 (+/-1%) by May 4, 2020 (+/1 trading day) before moving higher in May, June and July.
Dow: Decline in Progress
After an early morning drop on Tuesday, April 21, 2020, a move back up to 23,400 is expected. Structural calculations show the Dow moving down to 22,300 (+/-1%) by Friday, April 24, 2020.
Dow: Price Action Update
The result of today’s price action indicates Market Makers are planning a decline that will take the Dow down to 20,800 (+/-2%) by April 27, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). The 18,213 support level is still in place.
Dow: Options Expiration Update
The sharp decline noted on 4/9/20 is in progress. Current structural calculations indicate the Dow is expected to reach 20,800 (+/- 2%) by April 16, 2020 at 4:00 p.m. If needed, calculations will be updated for the Dow hitting 18,435.
Dow: 18,213 Support Level
Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a 33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.