Note that a retracement up to 28,431.35 (+/- 1%) is expected by November 5, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) using a rising wedge formation in the futures market prior to starting a decline to 18,748 (+/- 1%).
Dow: Decline to 18748
As discussed on October 17, 2020, the Dow declined today to within 1% and 1 trading day of the expected trading range. Based on current Dow structure calculations and engrbytrade embedded trade markerTM, a trading range of 18,748 (+/-1%) is expected by December 4, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Additional calculations will be needed to focus on a final trading range and date. In the interim volatile short term trading by Market Makers is expected as they continue to setup for a year end decline.
Dow: Dow Structure
It should be noted that the 2009-2020 Dow structure has been constructed in a way that will provide Exchange Insiders the means to continue a significant decline and conduct a major market collapse between August 2021 and October 2021. This collapse is expected to be much larger than 2008 and is in line with the economic collapse noted on October 9, 2020.
Dow: Decline to 26,690
After completing a 7-point rising wedge in the Dow futures chart structure, as noted on October 11, 2020, watch for a decline that will take the Dow down to 26,690 (+/- 1%) on the NYSE by October 27, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Bond Positions
An extreme diversion from the mean in 30 year bond positions mentioned on October 3, 2020 continues to expand. In addition to this, a 7-point rising wedge structure was completed on Friday, October 9, 2020. There is a high probability that volatile conditions over the next three months will create a decline leading into mid-January that has the potential to reach 13,000 (+/- 2%).
Dow: Rising Wedge
On 9/25/20 Commercial Futures Traders initiated a 7-point rising wedge structure that is expected to be complete today. This wedge is visible on the Dow 15 minute futures chart. Their motive for this structure is to provide a decline to 27174 (+/-1%) on the NYSE in order to accumulate additional inventory prior to moving higher.
Dow: Stock Accumulation
On September 24, 2020 the Dow hit an intraday low of 26,537.01 and was within the 1% range discussed on September 22, 2020. A detailed review of Market Maker and Commercial Futures Trader trading structures on 9/3/20, 9/4/20 and 9/18/20 indicates Exchange Insider stock accumulation and contract adjustments are expected to move the Dow up to 31,487 (+/-1%) by January 27, 2021. This move upward provides additional time for Exchange Insiders to distribute stock and accumulate short positions prior to a long term decline.
Dow: Pivot Up
Calculations indicate Market Makers plan to push the Dow down to 26,352 (+/-1%) by Friday September 25, 2020 (+/-1 trading day). Upon completing this decline, a pivot up to 29,531 (+/-1%) is expected by October 14, 2020 before starting a long term decline.
Dow: 90 Year Timeline
The 90 year timeline for a major decline is still on track. Key events discussed on September 7, 2020 will drive a decline of 86% in the Dow over the next two years. Calculations show the Dow will hit a low of 4137.19 by October 2022. In the background COVID cases will start to increase in October 2020 and peak by January 2021. This is very similar to what happened with the Spanish Flu in 1919. The second wave of COVID will continue to unravel the economy and supply chains resulting in numerous bankruptcies.
Dow: Repeat Performance
It should be noted that Market Makers are apparently working to duplicate a basic Dow structure from August 2000 to September 2000. Underlying holdings of select positions in the futures market indicate a repeat performance is expected in September to October 2020.
Dow: Early Peak
Commercial Futures Traders are accelerating their schedule in order to develop a structure that will reach an early peak of 29,789 (+/- 1%) by September 9, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Their efforts are expected to place the Dow in a position that will support a decline to the 17,000 range by December 2020. Volatility will continue to increase.
Dow: Mid-September Peak
The engrbytrade Dow model indicates a peak of 30,409 (+/- 1%) is expected on September 16, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) prior to moving significantly lower. Following this peak, estimates currently indicate a move down below 17,000 by December 2020.
Dow: Distribution of Inventory
Replacing Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies with Salesforce, Amgen, and Honeywell International will allow Exchange Insiders to extend the current rally an additional 6% as they maximize short sales during their distribution of inventory (stock) to the public. The Dow is expected to reach 30,469 by September 28, 2020 and hit an upper trend line shown in the chart above.
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Dow: Structural Changes
In an attempt to mitigate a precipitous decline in the Dow, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced structural changes that will go into effect on August 31, 2020. This adjustment does not change expectations for a decline between August 2020 and October 2020, as noted on August 9, 2020.
Dow: 2018 Repeat Performance
Watch Market Makers conduct a repeat performance of 2018 by December 2020.
Posted by CNN on November 20, 2018.
Dow: Close the Gap
A detailed review of the current Dow structure indicates a peak is expected on August 12, 2020 (+/- 1.5 trading days). This move should allow sufficient time for Market Makers to close the gap created on February 24, 2020. Following this peak the Dow is expected fall below 17,000 by mid-October 2020.
Dow: August Decline
Structural calculations currently show a decline starting on July 29, 2020 (+/-1 trading day) and reaching 18481 (+/-1%) by August 19, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this decline, a short term move upward is expected prior to dropping into the last quarter of 2020.
Dow: Gap Filled
Between June 17, 2020 and June 26, 2020, the Dow moved from 26,119.61 to 25,015.55. Today, Market Makers filled the gap that occurred between June 10, 2020 and June 11, 2020. This move aligns with the development of a rising wedge starting from a low of 20,735.02 on April 2, 2020. It also confirms the intent of Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders to move the Dow down to 18481.
Dow: Structured Decline
On June 17, 2020 Futures Traders initiated the development of a basic Descending Triangle structure in preparation for a sharp decline in the Dow. Over the last five trading days calculations confirmed this structure has been designed to move the Dow down to 18481 by August 28, 2020. Volatility is expected to increase as the Dow moves lower over the next 45 trading days.
Dow: Volatile Decline
It should be noted that during the mid-June 2020 decline a select group of “short” exchange index products were under heavy accumulation during June 11 – 12, 2020. Historical data indicates that significant gaps, such as the one created on April 3 – 6, 2020 are expected to be filled. This would place the Dow in an extremely volatile range of 21447.81 (+/- 5%).
Dow: Early Decline
During the Federal Reserve Chairman’s testimony today, Futures Traders had a change of plans and developed a basic Descending Triangle structure as a prelude to a sharp decline in the Dow. This decline could be a minimum of 10% over the next 3 to 5 trading days.
Dow: Volatility Continues
As volatility continues to drive the Dow through extreme cycles each day it is still on track to move up to a peak of 27147 (+/- 0.5%) on Friday, June 19, 2020 before stopping and turning lower in July and August 2020. This peak is expected to have a retracement level of 78.6% based on a high of 29568.57 on February 12, 2020 and a low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020.
Dow: Asymmetric Decline
Calculations indicate the Dow is expected to conduct a short term move up to 27147 by June 19, 2020. The Dow is then expected to move down in an asymmetrical form, as compared to the March – June move upward, ultimately reaching 18481 by August 28, 2020. Closing the 2/24/20 gap would be deferred to a later date.
Dow: Eight Point Trading Model
Over the last two days the Dow has been working through a typical engrbytrade Eight Point Trading Model as shown below. This was a recurring event in the futures market during late April and early May. After completing this decline today a move back up to the 28750 crossing point is expected before starting a significant decline.
Dow: Crossing Points
The Dow is still expected to cross the following Futures Market targets prior to turning and moving down toward 18481.
Target, Original Date and Time Identified
28750 2/23/20 @ 18:00 (final crossing point)
28665.5 2/23/20 @ 19:39
28626 2/23/20 @ 21:22
28214.5 2/25/20 @ 02:16