Dow: Decline Continues

On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST.  This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today.  A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.

Dow: Margin Call

Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020.  Margin calls are in progress…..

 

Decline Into April

On January 3, 2020 it was noted that a decline is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. After reviewing data up to this point calculations indicate this decline is still expected with minor adjustments. The Dow is now expected to drop between February 10, 2020 and April 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) to a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%). Volatility will be extreme during this decline as a significant number of investors try to sell at the same time. If Exchange Insiders delay this decline, it will set the stage for a decline at a later date that will shake the foundation of the financial industry.

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Long Term Perspective

Investors continue to buy shares with borrowed funds as they did 300 years ago with the South Sea Company. When prices started to fall in the last half of 1720 speculators went bankrupt and fortunes were lost. The structure shown above represents the Dow from 1973, after the U.S. went off of the gold standard, until February 2020. Timelines for developing the 1720 and 2020 price structures are vastly different, but the chart structures are similar and the underlying element of excessive debt that drives this market is identical.

Exceeding Structural Limits

If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.

Dow Upper Trend Line

On Thursday, January 16, 2020 the Dow pierced its long term upper trend line that runs through the top of September 1929, January 2000, and January 2018. The move above this 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees on a logarithmic chart is expected to be brief as Market Makers accumulate significant short sales with news events such as the Phase One Trade Agreement that was signed on January 15, 2020. Development of this type of trend line is explained in Richard Ney’s 1975 book, “Making It In The Market”. See the Colgate Palmolive example on page 300 showing an upper trend line, or what Richard Ney called the “upper force line”. Everything in the market is planned by Exchange Insiders. Richard Ney explains this in the following video clip: “Yes, The Markets ARE Rigged“. Today, Market Makers (formerly known as Specialists) use high performance automated computer systems to chart their course.


Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Dow: 1st Quarter 2020

Based on the identification of a Dow turning point occurring by January 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day), as noted on December 29, 2019, a decline is now expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020.  Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow should decline to 20,044 (+/- 1.5%) by March 10, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day).  Note that volatility is expected to increase significantly during this decline.

(Disclaimer)

Dow Structure Stability

The current broadening top formation in the Dow is developing an ominous structural feature.  Based on this structure, a rapid move to the upside going into mid-January could present significant downside risk.  If the Fed follows through with their $500 billion liquidity intervention in an attempt to avoid another December 2018 decline, the result could lead to an extremely unstable Dow structure in the first quarter of 2020.

November-December Decline

The decline discussed in Dow vs Aramco on Nov. 3, 2019 is still expected based on a move up from October 24, 2019 that was extended three days by Market Makers.  Friday’s move up in the Dow to 28,000 provided Exchange Insiders with an opportunity to sell to the public as media outlets manipulated retail investor expectations with optimistic news.  A decline is still expected to start by November 19, 2019 +/- 1 trading day and continue until December 24, 2019 when the NYSE closes at 1 p.m. EST.  This decline now has the potential to reach 24,200 +/- 1%.

Dow vs. Aramco

Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019.  This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019.  A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.

Dow: Futures Gap Filled

The October 1, 2019 gap down at 10:00 a.m. (EST) in the Dow 30 Futures was filled today (October 15, 2019) with the Dow 30 Futures moving above 26,986.5 at 10:29 a.m. (EST).  This structure clears the way for a decline over the next 18 days.  Based on this confirmation, final structural calculations indicate the NYSE Dow 30 index is expected to decline to a level of 24,091.99 (+/-1%) by November 8, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).

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Dow: 8 Trading Days

As of the close on October 1, 2019, the Dow is expected to move higher over the next 8 (+/-1) trading days before turning down. There is a very high probability (80% chance) that the Dow will hit a low of 25,928 (+/-1%) before November 5, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). There is also a 60% chance that the Dow will hit 24,951 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019.
(Disclaimer)

Dow: Decline and Volatility

Based on current futures trading data calculations, a significant amount of potential energy exists in the financial system to support a sharp decline in the Dow before the end of 2019. This decline could start as early as September 30, 2019 and move the Dow down to levels last seen during the week of December 17, 2018. A sharp rally is also expected to follow this decline with a recovery of at least 60%, followed by another decline. The volatility Index will move to extremely high levels during this time.

(Disclaimer)