Dow: 2020-2021

A detailed review of Dow structural data covering February, March and April 2020 indicates a decline is still expected to start this week.  In addition to reaching 20,800 in May 2020, calculations revealed the current Dow structure is unstable and is expected to have a significant impact on markets in 2020 and 2021. The current rate of change in this structure indicates a potential decline to a level below 16,000 before the end of 2020.

Disclaimer

Dow: 18,213 Support Level

Based on a 51.3% retracement from the low of 18,213.65 on March 23, 2020 to a high of 24,040.58 on April 14, 2020, there is a  33% chance that the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 (+/-5%) within a 30 day window if the Dow drops below 18,213.65. There is also a 66% chance the Dow will continue to fall to 12,800 by October 2020 if it drops below 18,213.65.

Disclaimer

Federal Reserve Intervention

Price action over the last three trading days indicates algorithmic trading programs are reacting to external forces, such as the Federal Reserve continuing intervention of “enhanced” swap lines and bail out of leveraged financial institutions.  The Fed’s intervention is expected to push the Dow upward over the next 10 trading days to the 52.5% retracement level noted on March 18, 2020 as leveraged financial institutions unwind their positions.  Following this move upward, institutional algorithmic trading programs are expected to stop buying and continue selling in order to push the Dow down to 11,248.20 (+/- 2%).  Watch for a rapid rise in store closings and bankruptcies.

Dow: 52.5% Retracement

Today the Dow hit 19,294 (at 1:29 p. m. EST), as noted on March 16, 2020. From today’s close of 19,898.92 the Dow is expected to move up to 24,490.39 (+/- 2%) by August 18, 2020. After this retracement of 52.5%, the Dow is expected to continue its decline.  Preliminary calculations indicate the Dow will reach 5,516 by October 2021. Structural trading adjustments will be made as needed during this decline.

Disclaimer

Dow: Decline Continues

On March 11, 2020 9:57 P.M. EST the Dow passed through 22,615 as described on March 11, 2020 8:05 P.M. EST.  This decline will continue as a Triple Top is being formed on the 1 minute chart at 4:47 A.M. EST on March 12, 2020. This drop will take the Dow down below 22,000 today.  A target level of level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) is still expected before the end of March 2020.

Dow: Margin Call

Market Makers accelerated their timeline with a 2000 point drop in the Dow to a level within 1.4% of 24,191 as previously identified on March 5, 2020. A move back up to 25,925 (+/-2%) is expected this week. This will be followed by another decline that was discussed on February 8, 2020 to reach a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%) before the end of March 2020.  Margin calls are in progress…..

 

Decline Into April

On January 3, 2020 it was noted that a decline is expected to occur during the first quarter of 2020. After reviewing data up to this point calculations indicate this decline is still expected with minor adjustments. The Dow is now expected to drop between February 10, 2020 and April 6, 2020 (+/- 1 trading day) to a level of 19,510 (+/- 2%). Volatility will be extreme during this decline as a significant number of investors try to sell at the same time. If Exchange Insiders delay this decline, it will set the stage for a decline at a later date that will shake the foundation of the financial industry.

(Disclaimer)

Long Term Perspective

Investors continue to buy shares with borrowed funds as they did 300 years ago with the South Sea Company. When prices started to fall in the last half of 1720 speculators went bankrupt and fortunes were lost. The structure shown above represents the Dow from 1973, after the U.S. went off of the gold standard, until February 2020. Timelines for developing the 1720 and 2020 price structures are vastly different, but the chart structures are similar and the underlying element of excessive debt that drives this market is identical.

Exceeding Structural Limits

If the Federal Reserve and Market Makers choose to exceed financial market structural limits, their actions could result in a catastrophic failure of the current 90 year Dow structure. A move above the Dow’s 90 year trend line of 27.25 degrees to 31,085 could result in a decline below the 6,000 range. A move above the 90 year trend line to 32,125 could cause a catastrophic failure with the Dow ultimately moving well below the 5000 level.