Category: Dow

Prior to the official announcement of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO, Market Makers quickly adjusted the Dow timeline to accommodate the start of Aramco stock trading on December 11, 2019.  This adjustment shifted the Dow structure in a way that will provide stability in the markets until a final price for the float is announced on December 4, 2019.  A small decline in the Dow is expected to start by November 12, 2019 and move down to the 26,200 range by December 10, 2019.

Prior to any significant decline in the stock market, Aramco is expected to complete an initial public offering by December 11, 2019.

Saudi Aramco shares to start trading in December

 

The October 1, 2019 gap down at 10:00 a.m. (EST) in the Dow 30 Futures was filled today (October 15, 2019) with the Dow 30 Futures moving above 26,986.5 at 10:29 a.m. (EST).  This structure clears the way for a decline over the next 18 days.  Based on this confirmation, final structural calculations indicate the NYSE Dow 30 index is expected to decline to a level of 24,091.99 (+/-1%) by November 8, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).

(Disclaimer)

A majority of the gap down identified on 10/6/19 was filled today.  A down day is expected on Monday followed by an up day on Tuesday to fill the remainder of the gap.  Tuesday’s peak will initiate the start of a decline going into November.

Time is short for Market Makers.  The latest calculations indicate a turning point in the Dow by Monday, October 14, 2019 (+/- 1 day).  Preliminary calculations show the Dow is expected to decline to 24,527 (+/-1%) by November 6, 2019, and then move upward for ten days before the next turn to continue the decline.
(Disclaimer)

A gap down occurred in the Dow futures between 26,986.5 and 26,956 on October 1, 2019 at 10:00 a.m. (EST).   The Dow Index algorithm is expected to move the Dow up and fill this gap by November 11, 2019.  Final computer model adjustments show the Dow dropping to 22,300 (+/- 1.5%) before December 31, 2019.

Today’s move in the Dow’s structure indicates a significant move to the downside is planned. If the Dow moves up to 26,900 (+/-0.5%) by October 11, 2019 (+/-1 trading day), a high probability exits for the Dow to decline to 23,045 (+/-1%) before December 31, 2019.

As of the close on October 1, 2019, the Dow is expected to move higher over the next 8 (+/-1) trading days before turning down. There is a very high probability (80% chance) that the Dow will hit a low of 25,928 (+/-1%) before November 5, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). There is also a 60% chance that the Dow will hit 24,951 (+/-1%) before the end of 2019.
(Disclaimer)

Based on current futures trading data calculations, a significant amount of potential energy exists in the financial system to support a sharp decline in the Dow before the end of 2019. This decline could start as early as September 30, 2019 and move the Dow down to levels last seen during the week of December 17, 2018. A sharp rally is also expected to follow this decline with a recovery of at least 60%, followed by another decline. The volatility Index will move to extremely high levels during this time.

(Disclaimer)

A daily high of 27,272.17 occurred at 11:39 a.m. on September 19, 2019. This was within 0.5% of the projected closing high of 27,386.27 and one trading day earlier than expected, as noted on September 17, 2019. This peak is expected to be the starting point for a long term decline.

The Dow is on track day-for-day toward 27,738.40 (+/- 1.0%) with a peak by September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). Following this peak, the Dow is still expected to start a long term decline with the first short leg down to 24,870 (+/-1.0%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). If there are any changes to this scenario prior to September 24, 2019, they will be posted.

Short term calculations confirm a very high probability exists for the Dow to peak on September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day). From September 24, 2019 a steady long-term decline in the Dow is expected to occur over the next two years. Minor adjustments have been made to the short term model shown below.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.3.1)
Dow closing price on August 30, 2019: 26,403.28
The Dow is expected to:
Move up to 27,738.40 (+/- 1.0%) by September 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move down to 24,870 (+/-1%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move up to 26,558 (+/-1%) by November 19, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
Move down to 23,505 (+/-1%) by December 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

Calculations based on the actions of market makers and structures they create, reveals a truncated rally with a peak expected in September, 2019. Extreme volatility will be the norm in the last quarter of 2019. Due to this volatility, calculations shown below are preliminary and are subject to change as Market Makers incorporate their adjustments. Overall, a decline in the Dow is expected to continue well into 2020.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.3)
Dow closing price on August 23, 2019: 25,628.90
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 27,605 (+/- 1.0%) by September 20, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
2. Move down to 24,870 (+/-1%) by November 4, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 26,558 (+/-1%) by November 19, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Move down to 23,505 (+/-1%) by December 24, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

With today’s decline, preliminary model calculations show a market peak occurring on September 18, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day), during options expiration week. This peak is earlier than expected and indicates Market Makers may be adjusting their plans to start driving markets lower in early October. Until then, calculations will be reviewed daily to see if any adjustments are needed.

Today’s short term pullback was a repeat performance of August 14, 2019 and provided Market Makers with the opportunity to accumulate additional inventory in order to move the Dow higher in September.

The August 18, 2019 gap in the futures market was filled today. Time to move up again.

Aramco has decided to move forward with their IPO near the market’s all-time high. A sign that the top is very close.

A review of additional data with the recent discussion surrounding GE indicates a truncated rally going into October. The following model reflects extreme volatility over the next few months. If the Dow aligns with the first three moves noted below, there is a high probability a steep decline will follow in the fourth move.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.2)
Dow closing price on August 16, 2019: 25,886.01
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 27,605 (+/-1.0%) by October 9, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2. Decline to 23,890 (+/-2%) by November 18, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 25,952 (+/-2%) by December 3, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to 16,563 (+/-2%) by , January 17, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

A significant amount of stock in the Technology Sector was accumulated by Exchange Insiders over the last ten trading days. This accumulation is reflected in the latest computer model run and indicates the Dow is now projected to peak by October 9, 2019 (+/-1 trading day) with a level of 29,923 (+/-1%). The Current Projected Scenario Model will be revised at a later date to reflect this change.

The Dow is expected to move higher over the next two and one-half weeks. Based on structural and timeline analysis, “Management” expects Financial Engineers and Market Makers to complete this long term Dow Project by Tuesday, August 27, 2019 (+/-1.5 days) with a closing price of 29,923 (+/-1.0%) prior to starting the deconstruction process. If they do not meet their price target, the end date will remain the same.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.1)
Dow closing price on August 9, 2019: 26,287.44
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 29,923 (+/-1.0%) on August 27, 2019 (+/-1.5 trading days).
2. Decline to 25,733 (+/-2%) on September 27, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 27,534 (+/-2%) on October 8, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to 18,034 (+/-2%) on October 23, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

(Disclaimer)

The “gap down” in the Dow today is part of a structural project that contains a prerequisite for a sharp move down prior to moving higher. Today’s gap will be filled on the way to a new closing high by August 30, 2019, as noted below.

The Dow is expected to move up to 29,923 (+/-1.0%) by August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
The Current Projected Scenario Model#2019-4 will be revised and published at a later date.

Historical data has provided sufficient information to develop the following Preliminary Dow Model forecast. If the Dow continues its projected path to August 30, 2019, this model has a very high probability of occurring. Since this work is preliminary, revisions may be necessary as the Dow moves through August.

Current Projected Scenario (Model #2019-4, Rev.0)
Dow closing price on July 19, 2019: 27,154.20
The Dow is expected to:
1. Move up to 28,555 (+/-1.3%) on August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day).
2. Decline to 26,612 (+/-2%) on September 27, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
3. Move up to 27,815 (+/-2%) on October 9, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)
4. Decline to hit a daily low of 15,855 (+/-3%) on October 23, 2019 (+/- 1 trading day)

(Disclaimer)

Structural calculations currently show market makers adjusted their move upward in the Dow to a peak of 28,555 (+/-1.3%) by August 30, 2019 (+/-1 trading day). In addition to this, Commercial Traders are coordinating efforts to set up a decline in the British Pound and continue moving the Ten Year Note Interest Rate below 2.0%.