Category: Gold

Posted on

US Dollar/Gold/Silver: Declining Dollar

Daily engrbytrade™ calculations indicate the US Dollar is expected to continue moving lower. Similar daily calculation results noting a decline occurred on November 15, 2022. Weekly futures trading data calculations also indicate the Dollar will continue to move lower in 2023. In addition to this the effect of a declining Dollar will cause gold and silver to continue moving higher. Current intermarket futures trading data structural calculation results for gold and silver are similar to that of January 27, 2009.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dollar/Gold/Silver: Predetermined Course

On October 9, 2022, it was noted that the US Dollar had an upper trend line angle of 26.26 degrees above the x-axis and was similar to what was developed between 1991 and 2001. The chart below shows the US Dollar hit a high of 114.75 on September 28, 2022 with an upper trend line angle of 24.19°. This indicates a predetermined course was developed after 2008 using an upper trend line angle of 25.225° (+/-1.035°). Current intermarket futures trading data calculations show the US Dollar is expected to move higher, repeating a move upward similar to what occurred during the first half of 2001. As the US Dollar moves toward the upper trend line, a decline in value is expected for the Australian Dollar, British Pound, Copper, Euro, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, and Platinum.

During the Dollar’s initial rise in 2001, the Dow moved up into mid-February 2001 and then had a sharp decline going into the end of March 2001. Preliminary data indicates the Dow is expected to conduct a move similar to this during the first quarter of 2023.

Long term intermarket futures trading data calculations also indicate gold and silver are expected to develop a predetermined inverse chart structure of the US Dollar that is similar to the time frame between January 2001 and March 2008, as shown in the charts below.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Decline Expected

Gold spiked on February 24, 2022 with a high of 1974.04 leaving a long upper shadow candlestick formation. Intermarket futures trading data and structural calculations indicate gold is in the process of starting a decline that is expected to be similar to that of April 11, 2018 to August 16, 2018. Preliminary calculations show a drop to 1399 is expected.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2008 Chart Structure

Gold vs. dollar structural data calculations indicate gold is repeating the March 2008 to November 2008 chart structure on a much longer time frame during 2020 and 2021. The current structure started on August 7, 2020 with a high of 2075.11. As of July 23, 2021 gold reflects a similar structural position to where it was on July 28, 2008. This was just prior to the stock market collapse in 2008.  Gold is expected to be extremely volatile during the last half of 2021 as it moves lower between July 2021 and November 2021.  A price level of 1435 is expected by November 2021 before moving higher.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Deflationary Forces

On June 8, 2021 it was noted that a move up in gold to 1942.50 was expected prior to turning lower.  With the Federal Reserve’s discussion today of raising interest rates by the end of 2023, this confirms their intent to strengthen the U.S. Dollar.  It also aligns with a peak in the price of gold against the British Pound and Canadian Dollar, as discussed in the Gold post on June 5, 2021.  At this point gold is expected to have a repeat performance of October 2012 to December 2015 where significant deflationary forces will drive the price of gold much lower over the next three years.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Position of Gold

On May 25, 2021 it was noted that the position of gold against its current relative value with the U.S. Dollar was part of a calculation indicating a decline in gold is expected. In addition to the U.S. Dollar calculation, the position of gold to the British Pound and Canadian Dollar are now showing a 90% chance that gold will decline.  The last time this occurred was in September 2012.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: 2011-2021

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Additional data indicates a decline in gold is expected after reaching the 61.8% retracement level shown in the weekly chart above.  This is based on calculations showing: 1) Commercial Traders positioning for a decline, 2) Non-Commercial Traders accumulating significant long positions as well as their sentiment that gold prices will continue much higher, and 3) the position of gold against its current relative value with the U.S. Dollar.  This also aligns with the post on May 22, 2021 noting that the Dollar is being positioned for a move higher in 2021.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Short Positions

As with silver, calculations continue to indicate Commercial Futures Traders hold significant gold short positions with the expectation of a decline.  There is a 60% chance gold will have a repeat performance of the May-November 2008 decline based on Dow key events discussed in the May 12, 2021 post.  Using the 2008 decline model would take gold down to 1424 (+/- 1%) prior to moving higher as it did between 2009 and 2011.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Current Price Structure

The current daily price chart structure developed between August 7, 2020 and March 18, 2021 is 2.52 times longer in duration than a similar structure that was constructed between August 26, 2019 and November 20, 2019. Based on futures trader positions and expectation of a sharp decline in the Dow by May 5, 2021, gold is expected to follow the pattern of the 2019 price structure.  A move up to 1950 prior to dropping to 1517 (+/-2%) would align with the March 3, 2021 post.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Long Term Trend

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The chart above provides some perspective on long term projections for gold.  Commercial Trader positions indicate they are in the process of moving gold down to the red trend line.  A decline below 1517 (+/- 2%) is still expected.  Based on underlying futures trader positions, long term calculations indicate the current trend is expected to be a repeat performance of 2000 to 2011. Note that the trend lines start in the early 1800’s.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Gold: Long Term

Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Underlying gold trader positions along a 30 year timeline indicate futures traders are adjusting their positions at a faster pace than what occurred between October 1999 and April 2001.  The falling wedge formation shown above provides an illustration that a long term low is near. The decline discussed on February 6, 2021 is still expected to occur and should be brief, as it was on February 16, 2001, prior to moving significantly higher over the long term.

Disclaimer