Engrbytrade Posts

Posted on

Silver: Silver vs. U.S. Dollar

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Intermarket Futures trading data calculations indicate silver is in a position with the U.S. Dollar that is similar to where it was in September 2008 and is quickly approaching the point of initiating a decline to 18.81 (+/- 5%) before moving higher. After completing this decline, both silver and palladium are expected to move significantly higher over the next two years as stock markets collapse in 2022 and 2023. Gold is lagging behind, but its position could change quickly based on 2008 characteristics that are developing.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Crude Oil: Long Term Decline

Intermarket futures trading data confirms crude oil has started a long-term decline based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies.  This decline is expected to be similar in nature to previous declines that include August 28, 2013 to February 11, 2016 (2 years 5 months 14 days: 897 days) and October 3, 2018 to April 20, 2020 (1 year 6 months 17 days: 565 days).  The end result will be a return to the 1986 and 1998 base level of 10.80 after a period of decline that can take as long as 2 years.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: March 2022

When the Senate approved a Continuing Resolution it deferred the start of a market decline noted on November 30, 2021 to the first quarter of 2022.  This approval action aligns with the 1929 peak structure and would place a Dow peak near 38,000 by March 2022. Pending any further action by Congress or the Fed, a significant decline would follow the March peak. Daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations will track the progress of this move.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: 83% Update

On November 1, 2021 the Dow: 83% post noted that the Dow would start a decline on November 8, 2021.  Congress passed the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on November 6, 2021. This was followed by the Dow peaking on Monday November 8, 2021 with a new all-time high while a significant number of very large block trades occurred between November 8, 2021 and November 9, 2021. Prior to this move, daily engrbytrade™ Dow calculations shifted to indicate the Dow will continue developing a declining structure. The chart shown below provides an update to the rising wedge discussed on November 1, 2021. As of Friday, November 19, 2021 the Dow landed on the 83% mark and is expected to continue moving lower.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Interest Rates: 10Yr Move to Zero

Additional futures trading data revised 10Yr note interest rate structural calculations. This update indicates the 10Yr note interest rate is currently positioned to repeat a decline that is similar to what occurred between November 9, 2018 and September 3, 2019.  A move to zero is expected by the third quarter of 2022.

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: 1929 vs 2021 Peak

The Dow hit an all-time high of 36565.73 on November 8, 2021.  Prior to reaching this peak, calculations indicate the Dow repeated a unique set of daily structures similar to what occurred between July 29, 1929 and the peak on September 3, 1929. Daily Engrbytrade™ Dow calculations indicate the Dow will continue to develop a declining structure similar to what occurred between September 11, 1929 and October 4, 1929. The current decline is expected to continue into mid-December 2021.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Economy: Trade Deal Expiration

On January 15, 2020 China signed an Economic and Trade Agreement with the U.S.  Within 30 days of signing this agreement, the Dow started a sharp decline on February 13, 2020. This was just one day before the trade agreement went into effect, as noted in the following article.

US-China phase one tracker: China’s purchases of US goods in 2020 and 2021

This trade agreement expires on December 31, 2021. Watch for a stock market decline to start in January 2022.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Dow: 83%

Over the last three years, one key trait of the Dow (and S&P500) that stands out has been the rising wedge format with a consistent drop point on the 83% (+/-1%) mark, as shown below.  The Dow is expected to peak by November 4, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) followed by a sharp decline starting the week of November 8, 2021.

Disclaimer

Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

Posted on

Crude Oil: 2023

Long term preliminary intermarket futures trading data indicates crude oil is completing a topping process based on underlying data from related petroleum products and currencies. A volatile decline is expected to last as long as 2 years before reaching a level below 20.00 by 2023. Additional data will be needed during the remainder of 2021 to clarify this expected outcome.

Disclaimer

Posted on

Bitcoin: Accumulation Period

Based on intermarket futures trading data calculations, bitcoin’s current value has moved below Futures Traders expectations relative to the U.S. Dollar.  A similar situation occurred when the U.S. Dollar moved higher between January 2018 and December 2018.  A long term accumulation period for Bitcoin started in December 2018 and continued until May 2020.  Bitcoin is starting another accumulation period, as observed during the last week of October 2021, and is expected to continue moving higher over the long term.

Disclaimer