Designated Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders gold positions remained relatively unchanged with the recent spike in silver prices. This trading activity resulted in a minor change in the engrbytrade gold model structure showing an expected decline to 1469 (+/- 2%) by February 24, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day) before moving higher.
Silver: Short Squeeze
The rally in silver today was expected as exchange insiders sold short to retail investors rushing in to buy silver. This short squeeze, discussed in the following article, is a move designed to drop the price of silver during the first half of 2021. Commercial Traders will continue to hold a significant number of short positions. A move to 12.33 is expected by June 2021.
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Dow: 88 Days
Based on historical timelines, dynamic trade structures, engrbytrade™ embedded trade markers, and a collapsing economy, an 88 business day decline has started that will lead to 15,804 (+/- 10%) on the Dow by June 3, 2021. This is the first phase of a decline that will ultimately lead to a long term low of 4,137.19 on the Dow. Another point of reference is the SPY. It is expected to decline to 200 (+/- 5%) by June 3, 2021.
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Dow: 44 weeks
Stock chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
In addition to the 1929 timeline, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates made a point in 2017 that the U.S. economy looks like it did in 1937.
The week of May 4, 1936 to week ending March 6, 1937 covers 44 weeks with a similar structure shown in the chart above. As of the end of this week, the Dow will complete its 44th week starting from March 23, 2020.
Dow: 1929 vs 2021
On September 3, 1929 the Dow Jones index hit an all-time high of 386.10 prior to starting the market collapse. Today, Market Makers took advantage of the inauguration by pushing the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) upward to hit a high of 384.79. It is not a coincidence that the Dow’s 1929 high of 386.10 and today’s SPY high of 384.79 are less than 2 points apart.
Silver: Decline Expected
The expectation that Silver will decline has not changed. Commercial Futures Traders still hold significant short positions while retail customers continue to purchase long positions. Silver will need to decline in order to be in alignment with the value of global currencies. Silver is still expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Gold: Significant Short Positions
Commercial Futures Traders still hold significant short positions in gold, and in concert with the media, have driven retail customers into acquiring significant long positions just as they did in mid-2016. While gold prices drop to align with global currencies, retail investors will find their profits evaporate quickly. A decline to 1517 (+/- 2%) is still expected by February 16, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day).
Dow: Market Peak
Underlying futures trader positions and intermarket relationships between the Dow, 30Yr Bond, Copper and U.S. Dollar indicate a major decline is expected over the next two years. There is a high probability the Dow will repeat a structure similar to that of October 2007 through March 2009, ultimately dropping below 6,000. As of January 15, 2021, data indicates the Dow is in the same position as it was on October 11, 2007.
Dow: Hedged Position
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The chart above reflects the intent of Market Makers and Commercial Futures Traders to provide a swift decline below 15,000. At this point Commercial Futures Traders are hedged to take advantage of this broadening formation.
Dow: Timeline Review
A review of the timeline indicates Market Makers are still planning a January – February decline. It is expected that they will split the decline with the first part in January by dropping the Dow to 26,256 (+/- 2%) by January 28, 2021. This will be followed by a relatively small retracement during the first week of February to 28,154 (+/- 2%). The second decline is expected to take the Dow down to 14,683.46 (+/- 2%) by March 2, 2021.
Dow: 3.618
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
On January 8, 2021 the Dow hit an Engrbytrade level of 3.618 in the chart structure shown above. From this level the Dow is expected to roll over and start moving lower. This structure has occurred numerous times in the past. One example occurred between May 20, 1987 and August 25, 1987 prior to the October 1987 crash.
Gold: Gold Structure
On January 6, 2021 Commercial Futures Traders completed a gold structure similar to what occurred between June 11, 2016 and November 9, 2016 as Market Makers continue selling short and distributing gold shares to retail investors. A decline to 1517 (+/- 2%) is expected by February 16, 2021 (+/- 1 trading day). Upon completion of this decline, a steady move upward is expected to occur between 2021 and 2025 based on structural relationships with Commercial Trader positions in long term bonds.
Dow: Dow vs. SPY
Note: On August 29, 1929 the Dow hit a daily high of 378.80 prior to moving lower the following week. On December 21, 2020 the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit a daily high of 378.46.
Dow: Sept – Oct 1929
Trades related to the 1929 template currently being used by Exchange Insiders, as discussed on December 12, 2020, are on track to duplicate a September 3, 1929 to October 4, 1929 decline during January – February 2021. An intraday low of 12,904.27 (+/-2%) is expected by February 25, 2021. This aligns with a decline in gold and silver that is expected during the same time period.
Gold: Decline in Gold
The expectation for a decline in gold has not changed. Market Makers continue to sell short and distribute gold shares to retail investors in preparation for this decline. Commercial Futures Traders are currently positioned for a decline in gold with a price target of 1517 (+/- 2%) by February 11, 2021. Upon completion of this decline, a steady move upward is expected to occur between 2021 and 2025 based on structural relationships with Commercial Trader positions in long term bonds.
Silver: Algorithm Continues
Silver, similar to gold, is apparently in the process of completing an algorithm that contains an instruction set originally developed between July 4, 2016 and November 9, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.50 (+/-3%) by February 11, 2021.
Dow: Rising Wedge Complete
As of December 21, 2020 at 04:45 a.m. EST, the 9 Point Rising Wedge structure discussed on December 18, 2020 is complete. The Dow is moving within a well-defined channel shown above while various sources note that stock markets are overvalued. JP Morgan stated; “…equity markets have not been this expensive so early into an economic recovery phase in the last twenty years.” A move down to 19,595 (+/- 2%), as discussed on December 12, 2020, is still expected.
Dow: 9 Point Rising Wedge
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A 9 Point Rising Wedge structure in the Dow is nearing completion. This is very similar to what occurred in February 2020.
Dow: 1929 vs 2020
Stock chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
After a detailed review of weekly data for the Dow, it is apparent that Exchange Insiders are in the process of updating a template from 1929 for a stock market decline that is expected to be larger than what occurred between February 10, 2020 and March 23, 2020. The 38 week structure developed between March 23, 2020 and December 11, 2020 is strikingly similar to the 39 week structure developed between December 10, 1928 and September 7, 1929. A decline is expected to occur between December 14, 2020 and February 26, 2021 with a preliminary estimated close in the range of 19,595 (+/-2%).
Dow: 2007 vs 2020
Dow structural patterns discussed on December 5, 2020 are similar to structures developed during September – October 2007. Record highs are noted in the following articles. A different narrative is discussed during each timeline, but it appears current algorithms have been designed to provide a decline similar to 2007-2009 over the next two years for the Greatest Recession.
October 9, 2007:
S&P 500 Closes At All Time High
December 7, 2020:
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Dow: Closing High 30218.26
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
A rising wedge in the Dow, as shown above, with a closing price that equals the high for Friday, December 4, 2020 indicates a repeat performance of February 2018 with a sharp decline expected over the next week.
Silver: 2016 Algorithm
Similar to gold, High Frequency Trading machines are in the process of using an algorithm that contains a similar instruction set for silver developed between July 8, 2016 and September 23, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, silver is expected to reach 16.75 (+/-3%) by mid-April, 2021.
Gold: 2016 Algorithm
High Frequency Trading machines are in the process of using an algorithm that contains a similar instruction set developed between July 8, 2016 and September 23, 2016. As this algorithm continues to run, with the current rate of change, gold is expected to reach 1674 (+/-1%) by December 24, 2020.
Dow: Sharp Decline
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
As algorithms continue to repeat, another gravestone candlestick appeared in the Dow daily chart on December 1, 2020. Expect a sharp decline over the next 9 trading days.