Intermarket structural analysis research
Yes, The Markets Are Rigged
In 2008 the NYSE transitioned from Specialists to Designated Market Makers and Supplemental Liquidity Providers. It is still a merchandising operation.
Approved NYSE Supplemental Liquidity Providing (SLP-PROP) Firms
HRT Financial LLC
IMC Chicago LLC
Latour Trading, LLC
Tradebot Systems, Inc.
Virtu Americas LLC
Approved NYSE Designated Market Makers
Citadel Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Company
Virtu Americas LLC
Research into the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index revealed comparable points to the weekly 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Futures Trader Net chart. In 2018 the weekly omen index hit 3.0 on September 4th, 10th, and 17th. On September 25, 2018 Non-Commercial Futures trader positions hit a low in the 10-Yr Note, as shown on the chart below. On October 4, 2018 the Dow and S&P500 started a decline that continued to the end of December 2018.
In comparison to 2018, the index recently hit 3.00 on September 3rd and 9th. At this point 10-Yr Note Futures traders are aligned closely with the weekly Hindenburg Omen Index. If the index hits 3.0 again, there is a high probability of a decline going into the end of 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Index chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 5, 2024 it was noted that futures gaps were still left to fill for the Dow and S&P500. Each index still has a one gap that has been open for 32 days, which is quite unusual. Investing.com can provide charts for Dow and S&P500 futures, if you are interested. Use a 5-minute chart with candlesticks to view the gaps.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On September 3, 2024 a net reportable positions of S&P500 clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers chart was developed. A review of relatively small variances provided a high correlation of key turning points where patterns emerge. Based on this data five out of six dates above the red line were starting points for an ascending broadening wedge. The most recent move was an ascending broadening wedge formed between December 5, 2023 and September 3, 2024. This is similar to what occurred between June 1, 2021 and February 11, 2022.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
https://stockcharts.com/
On August 17, 2024 it was noted that mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note interest rate structure positioning was in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500. This would mean the value of the 10-Yr Note would rise as interest rates decline. At that time the 10-Yr Note Non-Commercial Trader chart was certainly what would be considered a “crowded trade”.
On September 3, 2024 the 10-Yr Note interest rate was still positioned for a decline. Non-Commercial Trader Net positions for the underlying 10-Yr Note were hedged to the short side. This means they are positioned for interest rates to rise.
The 30-Yr bond total reportable positions of clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers are shown below. Their positions are also hedged to the short side and positioned for rates to rise.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Interest rate and bond chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Professor Steve Hanke Discusses the Economy
Professor Steve Hanke discusses the most misunderstood economic events affecting global markets.
0:00 Introduction
0:35 Economic Events
6:07 Impact of Money Supply on Economy
10:08 Rising Rates and Their Impact
12:23 Gold Market Outlook
14:05 Two Big Wars and Their Economic Impact
18:48 Market Overvaluation
21:18 Investment Strategy Advice
23:12 Book Preview: Capital, Interest, and Waiting
27:27 The Concept of Waiting in Economics
39:45 Conclusion
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
The latest NAAIM update indicates the Dow 8 point chart shown below is complete. At this point the Dow and S&P500 are expected to follow their August to October 2023 patterns. This move would also line up with computer algorithms working to fill remaining futures gaps created in August 2024.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Stock charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears that computer algorithms are working on some unfinished business related to filling futures gaps. On August 27, 2024 it was noted that there were still two open futures gaps to fill. The S&P500 is very close to filling its first futures gap created on August 15, 2024. It has been open for 21 days.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A review of the Dow 1-hr chart was performed between August 21, 2024 and September 3, 2024. Results indicate Market Makers were using an inverted Fibonacci technique shown in the first chart. This provides a method of inventory accumulation for the Market Maker when needed. It also provides algorithms with data needed to move the Dow up to its 16.83 degree upper trend line.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 17, 2024 it was noted that mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note rate structure positions were in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500. In addition to this the current 10-Yr Note rate position is in alignment with the February 2019 structure. Rates are expected to continue moving lower.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Interest Rate charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A review of the August 30, 2024 NAAIM Weekly Exposure Index revealed a repetitive pattern along a 17.33 degree trend line. The Dow continues to move higher and is expected to briefly touch its 16.83 degree upper trend line. This will complete the 2021 chart structure guide discussed on August 22, 2024.
Market Maker big block distributions after August 5, 2024 have been relatively light and are focused on a few big tech stocks and ETFs such as the SPY. This indicates Market Makers are planning to accumulate additional inventory during the next decline.
Overall, there are very few sector bullish percentage indices that are overvalued. Examples include the S&P Health Care Sector and S&P Real Estate Sector.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears that September 2024 will provide an opportunity to test the 1929 model. On September 3, 1929 the Dow hit its peak. The rest was history. Today the Dow is in a very similar position as it nears the 461.80% level shown below. Any number of events could precipitate a decline. Central bankers and Market Makers will be the determining factor.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
It appears the 2024 NVDA chart structure from June to August 2024 is similar to that of June to August of 2001. The 14.92 degree trend line indicates a decline is expected going into September and October.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 24, 2024 it was noted that contact with the IBM 1987 upper trend line was expected in late August or early September. On August 28, 2024 IBM hit its 1987 37.18 degree trend line shown below. IBM is expected to continue following its 1987 chart structure. When IBM hit its peak on August 21, 1987 it started a decline that ended on October 19, 1987. If a large number of stocks collapse in October, markets will close just as they did in 1987 and brokers will not respond.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Market Makers continue to proceed to the 16.83 degree upper trend line discussed on August 26, 2024, At this point there are still two open futures gaps. On August 8, 2024 and August 15, 2024 gaps were created in the Dow and S&P500 futures 5- minute charts. The majority of gaps created in these futures have a high probability of filling within a 5 day window. A sampling of 22 gaps in the Dow futures 5-minute chart between January 17, 2024 and August 4, 2024 were identified. Out of this sample 15 filled in less than 5 days. Five filled between 5 and 15 days, and 2 filled after 15 days. The Dow gaps noted above have been open 19 days and 12 days, respectively. Based on historical data, this indicates both gaps should fill before the September options expiration date.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 22, 2024 a brief sharp decline was expected before moving higher. Market Makers used the brief drop on August 22nd to accumulate additional inventory. This was observed in products such as the SPY. It appears Market Makers have decided to continue moving toward the 16.83 degree upper trend line.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On April 27, 2024 it was noted that structural calculations for the 2017 to 2024 IBM chart were similar to that of 1986 – 1987. On August 1, 2024 a review indicated IBM was still on track to reach its 37.18 degree upper trend line. The following charts show contact in late August or early September would be expected for the IBM 1987 trend line.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On April 28, 2024 futures trading data calculations indicated the Euro would continue to follow a descending triangle pattern. Current Engrbytrade™ futures trading data calculations indicate the Euro is changing direction for a move upward. This is reflected within the context of a descending broadening wedge shown below. The Euro is expected to move up to the 120 range as the US Dollar moves lower.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the 2024 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium — 8/23/2024 10:00 AM ET
On August 14, 2024, the Market Maker accumulation process was in full swing on Point 7 of the Dow, as shown below. The Dow is currently in a process of using the 2021 chart structure as a guide. A sharp decline should occur below the 38.20 Fibonacci level before moving up quickly to point 8.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On August 5, 2024 the Dow and S&P500 hit their lows of 38499.27 and 5119.26, respectively. Market Makers used this decline as an opportunity to accumulate additional stock (inventory). Based on the accelerated move from August 5, 2024 to August 16, 2024 a pullback is expected over the next several trading days, before moving higher. Trading patterns during the week of August 19, 2024 are also expected to be similar to the following.
In addition to this, sentiment calculations show a very brief pullback is expected before moving higher.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
On May 4, 2024 it was noted that Futures Traders were still waiting for a decline in rates and that it would be generated by the bond market, not the Fed. Since then, the 10Yr Note rate has dropped from 4.52 to 3.88 without a Fed rate cut. Futures trading data continues to confirm the 10Y Note rate is expected to decline. The mid-August 2007 and 2024 10-Yr Note rate structure positioning is in alignment, along with the Dow and S&P500.
Stock charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A brief pullback in the market is expected to be similar to what occurred between October 5, 202 to October 12, 2022 or October 18, 2023 to October 27, 2023. This could also turn into something much larger. On August 14, 2024 the WHO declared mpox as a public health emergency of international concern. If this situation continues to grow it could turn into a repeat of 2020.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Market Maker accumulation process was in full swing on August 5, 2024. For example, it appears they accumulated at least 5 times the number of shares in the SPY that they normally would on an average day. This inventory will be redistributed as the markets move higher. In the background, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hit 18 with an intraday low of 16. In comparison this index closed with a low of 17 on October 11, 2022. The Dow is still on track with the 2021 eight point chart shown below.
Note that this information is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation.
Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Fed Broke Another Central Bank, Global Sovereign Debt Crisis & Financial Turmoil Coming – Ed Dowd